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Does it matter (for equilibrium determinacy) what price index the central bank targets?

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  • Charles T. Carlstrom
  • Timothy S. Fuerst
  • Fabio Ghironi

Abstract

What inflation rate should the central bank target? The authors address determinacy issues related to this question in a two-sector model in which prices can differ in equilibrium. They assume that the degree of nominal price stickiness can vary across sectors and that labor is immobile. This paper’s contribution is to demonstrate that a modified Taylor principle holds in this environment. If the central bank elects to target sector A and responds to price movements in this sector with a coefficient greater than unity, then this policy rule will ensure determinacy across all sectors. These results have at least two implications: First, the equilibrium-determinacy criterion does not imply a preference for any particular inflation measure. Second, since the Taylor principle applies at the sectoral level, the principle is unnecessary at the aggregate level.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 0202.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0202

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Inflation (Finance) ; Banks and banking; Central;

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  1. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Working Papers, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies. 118, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  3. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April.
  4. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Currency Area," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  6. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
  10. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
  11. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  12. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75.
  13. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 517-31, October.
  14. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-33.
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