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Does it matter (for equilibrium determinacy) what price index the central bank targets?

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Author Info
Charles T. Carlstrom
Timothy S. Fuerst
Fabio Ghironi

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Abstract

What inflation rate should the central bank target? The authors address determinacy issues related to this question in a two-sector model in which prices can differ in equilibrium. They assume that the degree of nominal price stickiness can vary across sectors and that labor is immobile. This paper’s contribution is to demonstrate that a modified Taylor principle holds in this environment. If the central bank elects to target sector A and responds to price movements in this sector with a coefficient greater than unity, then this policy rule will ensure determinacy across all sectors. These results have at least two implications: First, the equilibrium-determinacy criterion does not imply a preference for any particular inflation measure. Second, since the Taylor principle applies at the sectoral level, the principle is unnecessary at the aggregate level.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 0202.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0202

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Keywords: Monetary policy Inflation (Finance) Banks and banking Central

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Currency Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39, pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 517-31, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
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  10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-33. [Downloadable!]
  13. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Marco Airaudo, 2005. "Learning about which measure of inflation to target," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 176, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Huw Dixon & Engin Kara, 2007. "Persistence and Nominal Inertia in a Generalized Taylor Economy: How Longer Contracts Dominate Shorter Contracts," Discussion Papers 07-01, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Alexander Mihailov, 2007. "Does Instrument Independence Matter under the Constrained Discretionof an Inflation Targeting Goal? Lessons from UK Taylor Rule Empirics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 95, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kolver Hernandez, 2004. "Inflation and Output Dynamics with State-Dependent Frequency of Price Changes," Macroeconomics 0411020, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2007. "Taylor rules with headline inflation: a bad idea," Working Paper 2007-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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