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Does it matter (for equilibrium determinacy) what price index the central bank targets?

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  • Charles T. Carlstrom
  • Timothy S. Fuerst
  • Fabio Ghironi

Abstract

What inflation rate should the central bank target? The authors address determinacy issues related to this question in a two-sector model in which prices can differ in equilibrium. They assume that the degree of nominal price stickiness can vary across sectors and that labor is immobile. This paper’s contribution is to demonstrate that a modified Taylor principle holds in this environment. If the central bank elects to target sector A and responds to price movements in this sector with a coefficient greater than unity, then this policy rule will ensure determinacy across all sectors. These results have at least two implications: First, the equilibrium-determinacy criterion does not imply a preference for any particular inflation measure. Second, since the Taylor principle applies at the sectoral level, the principle is unnecessary at the aggregate level.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 0202.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0202

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Inflation (Finance) ; Banks and banking; Central;

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References

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  1. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
  3. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 517-31, October.
  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
  6. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Working Paper 9910R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  7. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2002. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Working Papers 118, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  8. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
  9. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75.
  10. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Currency Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  12. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-33.
  13. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Kolver Hernandez, 2004. "Inflation and Output Dynamics with State-Dependent Frequency of Price Changes," Macroeconomics 0411020, EconWPA.
  2. Alexander L. Wolman, 2011. "The Optimal Rate of Inflation with Trending Relative Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 355-384, 03.
  3. Stephen McKnight, 2007. "Investment and Interest Rate Policy in the Open Economy," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2007-51, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  4. Dixon, Huw & Kara, Engin, 2011. "Contract length heterogeneity and the persistence of monetary shocks in a dynamic generalized Taylor economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 280-292, February.
  5. Dixon, Huw & Kara, Engin, 2007. "Persistence and Nominal Inertia in a Generalized Taylor Economy: How Longer Contracts Dominate Shorter Contracts," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/1, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  6. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2007. "Taylor rules with headline inflation: a bad idea," Working Paper 2007-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Marco Airaudo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2012. "Equilibrium Determinacy and Inflation Measures for Interest Rate Rules," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(4), pages 573-592, October.
  8. Alexander Mihailov, 2005. "Has More Independence Affected Bank of England's Reaction Function under Inflation Targeting? Lessons from Taylor Rule Empirics," Economics Discussion Papers 601, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  9. Carvalho Carlos, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-58, December.
  10. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2013. "Price indexation, habit formation, and the Generalized Taylor Principle," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 152, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  11. Vahagn Galstyan & Michael Wycherley, 2012. "Optimal Policy and the Sectoral Composition of Output in a New Keynesian Model," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp394, IIIS.
  12. Airaudo, Marco & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1566-1584.
  13. Mirco Soffritti & Francesco Zanetti, 2008. "The advantage of tying one's hands: revisited," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 135-149.
  14. Ko, Jun-Hyung, 2011. "Optimal monetary policy with durable services: user cost versus purchase price," MPRA Paper 34147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Marco Airaudo, 2005. "Learning about which measure of inflation to target," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 176, Society for Computational Economics.

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