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Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis

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Stefano Eusepi

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Abstract

This paper examines the performance of forecast-based nonlinear Taylor rules in a class of simple microfunded models. The paper shows that even if the policy rule leads to a locally determinate (and stable) inflation target, there exist other learnable "global" equilibria such as cycles and sunspots. Moreover, under learning dynamics, the economy can fall into a liquidity trap. By contrast, more backward-looking and "active" Taylor rules guarantee that the unique learnable equilibrium is the inflation target. This result is robust to different specifications of the role of money, price stickiness, and the trading environment.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 198.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:198

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Keywords: Econometric models ; Monetary policy ; Uncertainty ; Business cycles ; Banks and banking; Central;

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  2. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:1:p:22-48 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 125-134, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2001. "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
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  8. Azariadis, Costas & Guesnerie, Roger, 1986. "Sunspots and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 725-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. John C. Williams & Andrew T. Levin & Volker Wieland, 2001. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 068, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Pitfalls of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 100-104, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1998. "Learning And The Stability Of Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 22-48, March. [Downloadable!]
  12. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 167-186, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "Optimal Horizons for Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 103, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  16. Bloise, Gaetano, 2001. "A Geometric Approach to Sunspot Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 519-539, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Guesnerie, R. & Woodford, M., 1990. "Stability of Cycles with Adaptive Learning Rules," DELTA Working Papers 90-25, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  18. Lawrence J. Christiano & Sharon G. Harrison, 1996. "Chaos, Sunspots, and Automatic Stabilizers," NBER Working Papers 5703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Pintus, Patrick & de Vilder, Robin, 1998. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 14-59, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and the Liquidity Trap," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 112, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. James Bullard & John Duffy, 1995. "On learning and the stability of cycles," Working Papers 1995-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  24. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Learning and the central bank," Working Paper 0117, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 2001. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  26. repec:bep:macadv:v:7:y:2007:i:1:p:1165-1165 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," CEPR Discussion Papers 2948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1986. "Stabilizing competitive business cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 57-76, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya A., 2008. "Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within new Keynesian models," MPRA Paper 11249, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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