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Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis

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  • Stefano Eusepi

Abstract

This paper examines the performance of forecast-based nonlinear Taylor rules in a class of simple microfunded models. The paper shows that even if the policy rule leads to a locally determinate (and stable) inflation target, there exist other learnable "global" equilibria such as cycles and sunspots. Moreover, under learning dynamics, the economy can fall into a liquidity trap. By contrast, more backward-looking and "active" Taylor rules guarantee that the unique learnable equilibrium is the inflation target. This result is robust to different specifications of the role of money, price stickiness, and the trading environment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 198.

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Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:198

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Keywords: Econometric models ; Monetary policy ; Uncertainty ; Business cycles ; Banks and banking; Central;

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References

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  1. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 1999. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," CEPR Discussion Papers 2316, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Williams, John C. & Levin, Andrew T. & Wieland, Volker, 2001. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0068, European Central Bank.
  3. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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  7. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
  8. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Learning and the central bank," Working Paper 0117, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Ramon Marimon, 2002. "Stable Sunspot Equilibira in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-5, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 15 Nov 2005.
  10. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Sharon G. Harrison, 1996. "Chaos, sunspots, and automatic stabilizers," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  12. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
  13. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 125-134, July.
  14. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," NBER Working Papers 7261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. James Bullard & John Duffy, 1995. "On learning and the stability of cycles," Working Papers 1995-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  17. GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel & PINTUS, Patrick & de VILDER, Robin, 1997. "Capital-labor substitution and competitive nonlinear endogenous business cycles," CORE Discussion Papers 1997087, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  18. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
  19. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Groh� & Mart�n Uribe, 2002. "Chaotic Interest-Rate Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 72-78, May.
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  23. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Pitfalls of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 100-104, May.
  24. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1998. "Learning And The Stability Of Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 22-48, March.
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  26. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "Forward-looking versus backward-looking Taylor rules," Working Paper 0009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  27. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and the Liquidity Trap," NBER Working Papers 8225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Azariadis, Costas & Guesnerie, Roger, 1986. "Sunspots and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(5), pages 725-37, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. d'Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle & Hupkes, Hermen Jan, 2013. "Bounded Interest Rate Feedback Rules in Continuous-Time," MPRA Paper 45424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Hippolyte d'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Hermen Jan Hupkes, 2012. "Backward- versus Forward-Looking Feedback Interest Rate Rules," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12051, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  3. Airaudo, Marco & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1566-1584.
  4. Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya A., 2008. "Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within new Keynesian models," MPRA Paper 11249, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Marco Airaudo, 2012. "Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 12/121, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Eusepi, Stefano, 2007. "Learnability and monetary policy: A global perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1115-1131, May.

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