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Backward-looking interest-rate rules, interest-rate smoothing, and macroeconomic instability

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Author Info
Jess Benhabib
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Martin Uribe

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Abstract

The existing literature on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate feedback rules has stressed the perils of linking interest rates to forecasts of future inflation. Such rules have been found to give rise to aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations. In response to this concern, a growing literature has focused on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate rules whereby the central bank responds to a measure of past inflation. The consensus view that has emerged is that backward-looking rules contribute to protecting the economy from embarking on expectations-driven fluctuations. A common characteristic of the existing studies that arrive at this conclusion is their focus on local analysis. The contribution of this paper is to conduct a more global analysis.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 1379-1423
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcpr:y:2003:p:1379-1423

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Interest rates ; Economic stabilization;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1979. "On Models of Money and Perfect Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(1), pages 83-103, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  5. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-83, April.
    Other versions:
  6. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1988. "Monetary Policy without Quantity Variables," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 440-45, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Laurence Ball, 2002. "Short-run Money Demand," Economics Working Paper Archive 481, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
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  15. Dupor, Bill, 2001. "Investment and Interest Rate Policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 85-113, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 167-186, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Working Paper 9910R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  27. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Price level determinacy and monetary policy under a balanced-budget requirement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 211-246, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jorge Hermann & Rómulo Chumacero, 2005. "No Estaba Muerta, ...: La Teoría Cuantitativa y la Relación entre Dinero e Inflación," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 324, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mark WEDER, 2006. "Interest rate rules and macroeconomic stabilization," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2006025, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Andreas Schabert & Christian Stoltenberg, 2005. "Money demand and macroeconomic stability revisited," Working Paper Series 458, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jesús Vazquez, 2004. "Does the Term Spread play a role in the FED\'S reaction function? ," DFAEII Working Papers 200402, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
  5. Paolo Angelini & Paolo Del Giovane & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2008. "Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union: What Role for Regional Information?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 1-28, September. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gerhard Sorger, 2005. "Active and Passive Monetary Policy in an Overlapping Generations Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 731-748, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jesús Vazquez, 2003. "The role of the term spread in an augmented Taylor rule: An empirical investigation," DFAEII Working Papers 200307, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
  8. Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2007. "Endogenous Cycles, Debt and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 0703, University of Bergamo, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2003. "Determinacy, learnability, and monetary policy inertia," Working Papers 2000-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin, 2004. "Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy," Working Papers 2004-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Stefano Eusepi, 2008. "Central bank transparency and nonlinear learning dynamics," Staff Reports 342, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jesus Vazquez, 2004. "Does the Term Spread Play a Role in the Fed's Reaction Function? An Empirical Investigation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 52, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Central bank transparency under model uncertainty," Staff Reports 199, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  14. Weder, Mark, 2003. "Taylor Rules in Practice: How Central Banks can Intercept Sunspot Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3899, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Tommy Sveen & Lutz Weinke, 2004. "Firm-Specific Investment, Sticky Prices, and the Taylor Principle," Economics Working Papers 780, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Ramón María-Dolores & Jesús Vázquez, 2004. "The New Keynesian Monetary Model: Does it Show the Comovement...?," DFAEII Working Papers 200405, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, revised 02 May 2008. [Downloadable!]
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