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Backward-looking interest-rate rules, interest-rate smoothing, and macroeconomic instability

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Author Info
Jess Benhabib
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Martin Uribe

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Abstract

The existing literature on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate feedback rules has stressed the perils of linking interest rates to forecasts of future inflation. Such rules have been found to give rise to aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations. In response to this concern, a growing literature has focused on the stabilizing properties of interest-rate rules whereby the central bank responds to a measure of past inflation. The consensus view that has emerged is that backward-looking rules contribute to protecting the economy from embarking on expectations-driven fluctuations. A common characteristic of the existing studies that arrive at this conclusion is their focus on local analysis. The contribution of this paper is to conduct a more global analysis.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 1379-1423
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcpr:y:2003:p:1379-1423

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Keywords: Monetary policy Interest rates Economic stabilization

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "Chaotic Interest Rate Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 259, Society for Computational Economics.
    Other versions:
  2. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1979. "On Models of Money and Perfect Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(1), pages 83-103, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  4. Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-84, November.
    Other versions:
  5. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-83, April.
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  6. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1988. "Monetary Policy without Quantity Variables," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 440-45, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 6570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Laurence Ball, 2002. "Short-run Money Demand," Economics Working Paper Archive 481, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "Forward-looking versus backward-looking Taylor rules," Working Paper 0009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  14. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Taylor, John B., 1998. "The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by the European Central Bank," Seminar Papers 649, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Brian Sack, 1998. "Uncertainty, learning, and gradual monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  18. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 167-186, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 535-563, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Laurence Ball, 2002. "Short-Run Money Demand," NBER Working Papers 9235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Working Paper 9910R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  27. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Price level determinacy and monetary policy under a balanced-budget requirement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 211-246, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  28. Taylor, J.B., 1998. "The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by European Central Bank," Papers 649, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  29. Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-85, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mark Weder, 2006. "Interest Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stabilization," Working Papers 2006-01, University of Adelaide, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jorge Hermann & Rómulo Chumacero, 2005. "No Estaba Muerta, ... : La Teoría Cuantitativa y la Relación entre Dinero e Inflación," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 324, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Central bank transparency under model uncertainty," Staff Reports 199, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  4. Weder, Mark, 2003. "Taylor Rules in Practice: How Central Banks can Intercept Sunspot Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3899, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Tommy Sveen & Lutz Weinke, 2004. "Firm-Specific Investment, Sticky Prices, and the Taylor Principle," Economics Working Papers 780, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Ramón María-Dolores & Jesús Vázquez, 2004. "The New Keynesian Monetary Model: Does it Show the Comovement...?," DFAEII Working Papers 200405, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, revised 02 May 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Schabert, Andreas & Stoltenberg, Christian, 2005. "Money Demand and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 4974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Jang-Ting Guo & Kevin Lansing, 2003. "Globally-Stabilizing Fiscal Policy Rules," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 7(2), pages 1103-1103. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jesus Vazquez, 2004. "Does the Term Spread Play a Role in the Fed's Reaction Function? An Empirical Investigation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 52, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin, 2004. "Inflation-targeting, price-path targeting and indeterminacy," Working Papers 2004-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Jesús Vazquez, 2004. "Does the Term Spread play a role in the FED\'S reaction function? ," DFAEII Working Papers 200402, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
  12. Gerhard Sorger, 2005. "Active and Passive Monetary Policy in an Overlapping Generations Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 731-748, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jesús Vazquez, 2003. "The role of the term spread in an augmented Taylor rule: An empirical investigation," DFAEII Working Papers 200307, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
  14. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2003. "Determinacy, learnability, and monetary policy inertia," Working Papers 2000-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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