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Uncertainty, learning, and gradual monetary policy

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Author Info
Brian Sack
Abstract

The value of a vast array of financial assets are functions of rates or prices determined in OTC, interbank, or other off-exchange markets. In order to price such derivative assets, underlying rate and price indexes are routinely sampled and estimated. To guard against misreporting, whether unintentional or for market manipulation, many standard contracts utilize a technique known as trimmed-means. This paper points out that this polling problem falls within the statistical framework of robust estimation. Intuitive criteria for choosing among robust valuation procedures are discussed. In particular, the approach taken is to minimize the worst-case scenario arising from a false report. The finite sample performance of the procedures that qualify, the trimmed-mean and the Huber-estimator, are examined in a set of simulation experiments.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1998-34.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1998-34

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary policy ; Monetary theory;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Marvin Goodfriend, 1987. "Interest rate smoothing and price level trend-stationarity," Working Paper 87-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1991. "Should The Fed Smooth Interest Rates? The Case of Seasonal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 3388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Interest-Rate Smoothing," NBER Working Papers 2581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bertocchi, Graziella & Spagat, Michael, 1991. "Learning, Experimentation and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1991018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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  7. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1987. "The optimal collection of seigniorage : Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 327-341, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608.
  9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  11. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F, 1994. "Inflation Variability and Gradualist Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(4), pages 721-38, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Volker Wieland, 1998. "Monetary policy and uncertainty about the natural unemployment rate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1996. "Monetary Policy as a Process of Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 689-702, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  16. John C. Williams, 1999. "Simple rules for monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  17. Alex Cukierman, 1989. "Why does the Fed smooth interest rates?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 111-157.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Aaron Drew & L Christopher Plantier, 2000. "Interest rate smoothing in New Zealand and other dollar bloc countries," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  2. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001. "Liquidity Traps with Global Taylor Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 2969, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Lavan Mahadeva & Gabriel Sterne, . "The role of short-run inflation targets and forecasts in disinflation," Bank of England working papers 167, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. Martin Uribe & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 2001. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Ben Martin & Chris Salmon, . "Should uncertain monetary policy-makers do less?," Bank of England working papers 99, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  6. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel, 2003. "Adjustment Is Much Slower Than You Think," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1430, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Richard Dennis, 2001. "The policy preferences of the U.S. Federal Reserve," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2001-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Kristoffer P. NIMARK, 2003. "Monetary Policy Performance and the Accuracy of Observations," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/08, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2003. "Backward-looking interest-rate rules, interest-rate smoothing, and macroeconomic instability," Working Papers 03-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. repec:bep:maccon:v:4:y:2004:i:1:p:1169-1169 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Luisa Corrado & Sean Holly, 2004. " Habit Formation and Interest Rate Smoothing," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0404, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. John Driffill & Zeno Rotondi, 2007. "Inertia in Taylor Rules," WEF Working Papers 0032, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Gabriel Srour, 2003. "Some Notes on Monetary Policy Rules with Uncertainty," Working Papers 03-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  15. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2002. "Term premia : endogenous constraints on monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 02-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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