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Backward- versus Forward-Looking Feedback Interest Rate Rules

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Abstract

This paper proposes conditions for the existence and uniqueness of solutions to systems of differential equations with delays or advances in which some variables are non-predetermined. An application to the issue of optimal interest rate policy is then develop in a flexible-price model where money enters the utility function. Central banks have the choice between a rule that depends on past inflation rates or one that depends on predicted interest rates. When inflation rates are selected over a bounded time interval, the problem is characterized by a system of delay or advanced differential equations. We then prove that if the central bank's forecast horizon is not too long, an active and forward-looking monetary policy is not too destabilizing : the equilibrium trajectory is unique and monotonic.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/CES2012/12051.pdf
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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 12051.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:12051

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Keywords: Interest rate rules; indeterminacy; functionnal differential equations.;

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  1. Raouf Boucekkine & David De La Croix & Omar Licandro, 2004. "MODELLING VINTAGE STRUCTURES WITH DDEs: PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3-4), pages 151-179.
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  9. Hippolyte d'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Hermen Jan Hupkes, 2012. "Discontinuous Initial Value Problems for Functional Differential-Algebraic Equations of Mixed Type," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12043, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  14. Boucekkine, Raouf & Licandro, Omar & Puch, Luis A. & del Rio, Fernando, 1999. "Vintage Capital and the Dynamics of the AK Model," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  15. Bill Dupor, 2000. "Investment and Interest Rate Policy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0007, Econometric Society.
  16. Hippolyte D'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Alain Venditti, 2009. "Business cycle fluctuations and learning-by-doing externalities in a one-sector model," Working Papers halshs-00432267, HAL.
  17. Benhabib, Jess, 2004. "Interest Rate Policy in Continuous Time with Discrete Delays," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 1-15, February.
  18. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
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