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An Analytical and Numerical Search for Bifurcations in Open Economy New Keynesian Models

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  • William Barnett

    (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)

  • Unal Eryilmaz

    (OECD)

Abstract

We explore bifurcation phenomena in the open-economy New Keynesian model developed by Gali and Monacelli (2005). We find that the open economy framework brings about more complex dynamics, along with a wider variety of qualitative behaviors and policy responses. Introducing parameters related to the open economy structure affects the values of bifurcation parameters and changes the location of bifurcation boundaries. As a result, the stratification of the confidence region, as previously seen in closed-economy New Keynesian models, remains an important research and policy risk to be considered in the context of the open-economy New Keynesian functional structures. In fact, econometrics and optimal policy design become more complex within an open economy. Dynamical inferences need to be qualified by the risk of bifurcation boundaries crossing the confidence regions. Policy design needs to take into consideration that a change in monetary policy can produce an unanticipated bifurcation, without adequate prior econometrics research.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Kansas, Department of Economics in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS with number 201210.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision: Aug 2012
Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:201210

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Keywords: stability; bifurcation; open economy; New Keynesian; determinacy; macroeconomics; dynamic systems;

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  1. Demirel, Ufuk Devrim, 2010. "Macroeconomic stabilization in developing economies: Are optimal policies procyclical?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 409-428, April.
  2. Grandmont Jean-michel, 1983. "On endogenous competitive business cycles," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8316, CEPREMAP.
  3. William Barnett & Evgeniya Duzhak, 2010. "Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within New Keynesian models," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 99-128, October.
  4. Banerjee, Sanjibani & Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya A. & Gopalan, Ramu, 2011. "Bifurcation Analysis of Zellner's Marshallain Macroeconomic Model," MPRA Paper 30059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Marco Airaudo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2005. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 849, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Leith, Campbell & Moldovan, Ioana & Rossi, Raffaele, 2009. "Optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with habits in consumption," Working Paper Series 1076, European Central Bank.
  7. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  8. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Monetary policy and European unemployment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 94-108, Spring.
  9. Campbell Leith & Ioana Moldovan & Raffaele Rossi, 2012. "Online Appendix to "Optimal Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Habits in Consumption"," Technical Appendices 09-154, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  10. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Barnett, William A. & Eryilmaz, Unal, 2012. "Hopf bifurcation in the Clarida, Gali, and Gertler model," MPRA Paper 40668, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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