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Monetary policy rules and indterminacy

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Author Info
Sosunov, Kirill
Khramov, Vadim

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Abstract

In recent papers it is shown that in the presence of price stickiness, investment and capital accumulation activity, active monetary policy (MP) rules can lead to indeterminacy under various assumptions about the structure of the model. We analyze the conditions for real indeterminacy to occur in the model with capital accumulation. The key assumption is that we add response to output to the monetary policy rule. In our paper we show that adding Current or Expected Output to MP rule substantially changes the conditions for real indeterminacy to occur. In contrast to some existing research we show that under current-looking with respect to output MP rules indeterminacy is almost impossible; under forward-looking with respect to output MP rules indeterminacy is almost impossible under active MP rules and very likely to occur under passive MP rules. We also show that stability conditions are almost not sensitive to changes in capital share in output and aggregate markup. We provide the nominal determinacy analysis and show that active and forward-looking MP rules with respect to output give

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11996.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11996

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Related research
Keywords: Macroeconomics; Monetary Econimics; Indeterminacy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model," NBER Working Papers 7017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Xiao, Wei, 2008. "Increasing Returns And The Design Of Interest Rate Rules," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(01), pages 22-49, February. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2003. "Investment and interest rate policy: a discrete time analysis," Working Paper 0320, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. L.J. Christiano & C.J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 33, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Sveen, Tommy & Weinke, Lutz, 2005. "New perspectives on capital, sticky prices, and the Taylor principle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 21-39, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Robert G. King & Alexander L.Wolman, 2004. "Monetary discretion, pricing complementarity and dynamic multiple equilibria," Working Paper Series 343, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Stefano Eusepi & Jess Benhabib, 2005. "The Design of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: A Global Perspective," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 388, Society for Computational Economics.
    Other versions:
  10. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Real Indeterminacy in Monetary Models with Nominal Interest Rate Distortions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(4), pages 767-789, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2008. "Investment, interest rate policy, and equilibrium stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1489-1516, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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