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Monetary Policy and the Transition to Rational Expectations

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  • Giuseppe Ferrero

    ()
    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

Abstract

Under the assumption of bounded rationality, economic agents learn from their past mistaken predictions by combining new and old information to form new beliefs. The purpose of this paper is to examine how the policy-maker, by affecting private agents' learning process, determines the speed at which the economy converges to the rational expectation equilibrium. I find that by reacting strongly to private agents' expected inflation, a central bank would increase the speed of convergence. I assess the relevance of the transition period when looking at a criterion for evaluating monetary policy decisions and suggest that a fast convergence is not always suitable.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 499.

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Date of creation: Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_499_04

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Keywords: Interest Rate Setting; Adaptive Learning; Rational Expectations; Speed of Convergence;

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References

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  1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2001. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-6, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 03 Aug 2001.
  2. Howitt, Peter, 1992. "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 776-800, August.
  3. Woodford, M., 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia.," Papers 666, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  4. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
  6. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 1995. "Recurrent hyperinflations and learning," Economics Working Papers 244, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2001.
  7. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  8. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C, 2005. "Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2004. "Supply-side reforms and learning dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 36, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  10. Federico Cingano & Fabiano Schivardi, 2004. "Identifying the Sources of Local Productivity Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(4), pages 720-742, 06.
  11. Kosuke Aoki & Kalin Nikolov, 2004. "Rule-based monetary policy under central bank learning," Bank of England working papers 235, Bank of England.
  12. Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, 2004. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/14, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
  13. Paolo Finaldi Russo & Luigi Leva, 2004. "Il debito commerciale in Italia: quanto contano le motivazioni finanziarie?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 496, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  14. Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April.
  15. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542 Elsevier.
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Cited by:
  1. Michele Berardi, 2009. "Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous and Misspecified Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 79-100, 02.
  2. Martin Fukac, 2005. "Should Private Expectations Concern Central Bankers?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp277, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  3. Eugenio Gaiotti & Alessandro Secchi, 2004. "Is there a cost channel of monetary policy transmission? An investigation into the pricing behavior of 2,000 firms," Macroeconomics 0412010, EconWPA.
  4. Alberto Locarno, 2007. "Imperfect Knowledge, Adaptive Learning, and the Bias Against Activist Monetary Policies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 47-85, September.
  5. Krisztina Molnar & Sergio Santoro, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy When Agents Are Learning," 2008 Meeting Papers 679, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Martin Fukac, 2006. "New Keynesian Model Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning," Working Papers 2006/5, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  7. Sergey Slobodyan & Atanas Christev, 2006. "On learnability of E–stable equilibria," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 451, Society for Computational Economics.

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