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Heterogeneous Gain Learning and Long Swings in Asset Prices

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  • Blake LeBaron

    ()
    (International Business School, Brandeis University)

Abstract

This paper considers the impact of heterogeneous gain learning in an asset pricing model. A relatively stylized model is shown to generate persistent swings of asset prices from their fundamental values which replicates long range samples of U.S financial data. The detailed mechanisms of the learning models are then explored. Evidence suggests that agents' perceptions of risk and its dynamics and persistence are important in generating appropriate price/fundamental dynamics. Agents putting large amounts of weight on the recent past in their volatility models control a large fraction of wealth, and are important in perpetuating the volatility magnifying dynamics of the market.

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File URL: http://www.brandeis.edu/departments/economics/RePEc/brd/doc/Brandeis_WP10.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
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File URL: http://www.brandeis.edu/departments/economics/RePEc/brd/doc/Brandeis_WP10R.pdf
File Function: Revised version, 2011
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School in its series Working Papers with number 10.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:brd:wpaper:10

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Postal: MS032, P.O. Box 9110, Waltham, MA 02454-9110
Web page: http://www.brandeis.edu/departments/economics/
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Related research

Keywords: Learning; Asset Pricing; Financial Time Series; Evolution; Memory;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

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  15. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
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  17. LeBaron, Blake, 2001. "Evolution And Time Horizons In An Agent-Based Stock Market," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 225-254, April.
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