Bubbles, crashes and risk
AbstractA restricted-perceptions equilibrium exists in which risk-averse agents believe stock prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk, bubbles and crashes arise. These effects are stronger when agents allow for ARCH in excess returns.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 120 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet
Risk; Asset pricing; Bubbles; Adaptive learning;
Other versions of this item:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2005:x:62 is not listed on IDEAS
- William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2011.
"Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 159-91, July.
- William A. Branch & George W. Evans, . "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," CDMA Working Paper Series 201010, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised 15 Apr 2010.
- Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, . "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-1, University of Oregon Economics Department.
- Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2010. "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-33, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, .
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers
_124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- Barsky, Robert B & De Long, J Bradford, 1993.
"Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 108(2), pages 291-311, May.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "Hetergeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Working papers 9621, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Timmermann, Allan G, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-45, November.
- Gaunersdorfer, Andrea, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 799-831, June.
- Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing, 2013.
"House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals,"
2013/05, Norges Bank.
- Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing, 2013. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Working Paper Series 2013-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Kevin J. Lansing, 2007.
"Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift,"
2007 Meeting Papers
970, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Marius Jurgilas & Kevin J. Lansing, 2012. "Housing bubbles and homeownership returns," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun25.
- Alan Greenspan, 2005. "Reflections on central banking," Speech 126, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.