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Author Info
Kaushik Mitra () (Department of Economics, Royal Holloway, University of London)

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Abstract

Conventional wisdom usually suggests that agents should use all the data they have to make the best possible prediction. In this paper, it is shown that agents may make better predictions by discarding old data if their model is mis-specified. The applicability of the results to some economic models is also demonstrated.

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File URL: http://www.rhul.ac.uk/economics/Research/WorkingPapers/pdf/dpe0419.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London in its series Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics with number 04/19.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2004
Date of revision: Jul 2004
Handle: RePEc:hol:holodi:0419

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Related research
Keywords: optimal mean squared error bounded memory.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Honkapohja, S. & Mitra, K., 1999. "Learning with Bounded Memory in Stochastic Models," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 456, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  3. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:3:p:287-321 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  5. G Evans & S Honkapohja, 1993. "Adaptive Forecasts," CEP Discussion Papers 0135, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1, pages 19-46. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Evans, G B A & Savin, N E, 1984. "Testing for Unit Roots: 2," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1241-69, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. George W. Evans & Garey Ramey, 2001. ""Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Dec 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Evans, G B A & Savin, N E, 1981. "Testing for Unit Roots: 1," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 753-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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