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Monetary Policy Switch, the Taylor Curve, and the Great Moderation

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Author Info
Efrem Castelnuovo () (Economics University of Padua)

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Abstract

This paper employs a standard new Keynesian model to compute the inflation/output volatility frontier, i.e. the "Taylor curve". The computation is performed both under equilibrium uniqueness and under indeterminacy. While under uniqueness the Taylor curve looks like expected - i.e. a monotonically decreasing curve in the ($\sigma x$, $\sigma \Pi$) diagram -, under indeterminacy a new result arises. We find that the tighter is the monetary policy, the higher is the inflation/output gap volatility. This is due to impact of systematic monetary policy on inflation and output persistence. In fact, under indeterminacy a more aggressive monetary policy causes an increase in inflation persistence, and augments its volatility. The effects on output tend to be of opposite sign. This finding is robust to different parameterization of the DSGE new-Keynesian monetary model employed. This result i) offers support the move from "passive" to "active" monetary policy as one of the possible rationales for the Great Moderation, ii) underlines the need of a deeper understanding of the link between systematic monetary policy and macroeconomic persistence, and iii) warns against sub-samples pooling when performing macroeconometric analysis.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 59.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:59

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Related research
Keywords: Taylor principle; Taylor curve; new Keynesian model; indeterminacy; persistence;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  1. Ignazio Angelloni & Luc Aucremanne & Michael Ehrmann & Jordi Galí & Andrew Levin & Frank Smets, 2005. "New Evidence on Inflation Persistence and Price Stickiness in the Euro Area: Implications for Macro Modelling," Economics Working Papers 910, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Rabanal, Pau, 2007. "Does inflation increase after a monetary policy tightening? Answers based on an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 906-937, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-86, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Wiliam Branch & John Carlson & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2004. "Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Trade-off," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-19, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 15 May 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 923-936, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2004. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1133-1153, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Jeff Fuhrer, 2005. "Intrinsic and inherited inflation persistence," Working Papers 05-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Paolo Surico, 2005. "Monetary Policy Shifts, Indeterminacy and Inflation Dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 313, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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