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Anticipation, Learning and Welfare: the Case of Distortionary Taxation

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  • Emanuel, Gasteiger
  • Shoujian, Zhang

Abstract

We study the impact of anticipated fiscal policy changes in a Ramsey economy where agents form long-horizon expectations using adaptive learning. We extend the existing framework by introducing distortionary taxes as well as elastic labour supply, which makes agents. decisions non-predetermined but more realistic. We detect that the dynamic responses to anticipated tax changes under learning have oscillatory behaviour that can be interpreted as self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism emerging from systematic forecast errors. Moreover, we demonstrate that these waves can have important implications for the welfare consequences of .scal reforms. (JEL: E32, E62, D84)

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuel, Gasteiger & Shoujian, Zhang, 2013. "Anticipation, Learning and Welfare: the Case of Distortionary Taxation," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-50, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:477
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    Cited by:

    1. Quaghebeur, Ewoud, 2019. "Learning And The Size Of The Government Spending Multiplier," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(8), pages 3189-3224, December.
    2. Amélie BARBIER-GAUCHARD & Thierry BETTI & Théo METZ, 2023. "Fiscal multipliers, public debt anchor and government credibility in a behavioural macroeconomic model," Working Papers of BETA 2023-14, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    4. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11428, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Amelie Barbier-Gauchard & Thierry Betti & Theo Metz, 2023. "Fiscal multipliers, public debt anchor and government credibility in a behavioural macroeconomic model," Working Papers 2023.10, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    6. De Grauwe, Paul & Foresti, Pasquale, 2020. "Animal Spirits and Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 247-263.
    7. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2018. "Do Heterogeneous Expectations Constitute A Challenge For Policy Interaction?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(8), pages 2107-2140, December.
    8. Erin Cottle Hunt, 2021. "Adaptive Learning, Social Security Reform, and Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 677-714, June.
    9. Hollmayr, Josef & Matthes, Christian, 2015. "Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 142-162.
    10. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2018. "Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 173-205.
    11. Brecht Boone & Ewoud Quaghebeur, 2017. "Real-Time Parameterized Expectations And The Effects Of Government Spending," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/939, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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