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Trend-reverting fluctuations in the life-cycle model

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Author Info
Costas Azariadis
James Bullard
Lee Ohanian

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Abstract

Aggregate time series provide evidence of short term dynamic adjustment that appears to be governed by complex or negative real eigenvalues. This finding is at odds with the predictions of reasonably parameterized, convex one-sector growth models with complete markets. We study life cycle economies in which aggregate saving depends non-trivially on the distribution of wealth among cohorts. If consumption goods are weak gross substitutes near the steady state price vector, we prove that the unique equilibrium of a life cycle exchange economy converges to the unique non-monetary steady state via damped oscillations. We also discuss examples and extensions. ; Earlier title: Complex Eigenvalues and Trend-Reverting Fluctuations

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1998-015.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1998-015

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Econometric models ; Time-series analysis ; Regression analysis;

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  1. Smith, Bruce D, 1991. "Interest on Reserves and Sunspot Equilibria: Friedman's Proposal Reconsidered," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(1), pages 93-105, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Real-Business-Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 71-89, March.
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  4. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-83, April.
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  6. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
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  10. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Christopher A. Sims, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 0430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 345-80.
  15. Valerie R. Bencivenga & Elisabeth Huybens & Bruce D. Smith, 2002. "What to stabilize in the open economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1289-1307, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Michele Boldrin, 1988. "Paths of Optimal Accumulation in Two-Sector Models," UCLA Economics Working Papers 464, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Nils-Petter Lagerlöf, 2006. "The Galor-Weil Model Revisited: A Quantitative Exercise," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 116-142, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2002. "The baby boom and baby bust: some macroeconomics for population economics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Hippolyte d'Albis & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Veron, 2004. "Competitive growth in a life-cycle model : existence and dynamics," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v04016, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Costas Azariadis & Leo Kaas, 2007. "Is dynamic general equilibrium a theory of everything?," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 13-41, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Xavier Fairise & Patrick Fève, 2006. "Labor adjustment costs and complex eigenvalues," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 95-110, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Peter Stemp & Ric Herbert, 2006. "Solving Non-Linear Models with Saddle-Path Instabilities," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 211-231, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Brito, Paulo & Dilao, Rui, 2006. "Equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping-generations exchange economy," MPRA Paper 699, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Erasmo Papagni, 2008. "The Long-run Effects of Household Liquidity Constraints and Taxation on Fertility, Education, Saving, and Growth," Discussion Papers 11_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
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