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The baby boom and baby bust: some macroeconomics for population economics

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Author Info

  • Jeremy Greenwood
  • Ananth Seshadri
  • Guillaume Vandenbroucke

Abstract

What caused the baby boom? And, can it be explained within the context of the secular decline in fertility that has occurred over the last 200 years? The hypothesis is that: (i) The secular decline in fertility is due to the relentless rise in real wages that increased the opportunity cost of having children. (ii) The baby boom is explained by an atypical burst of technological progress in the household sector that occurred in the middle of the last century. This lowered the cost of having children. A model is developed in an attempt to account, quantitatively, for both the baby boom and bust.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2002:i:nov:x:3

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Keywords: Macroeconomics;

References

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  1. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell, 1996. "Can Technology Improvements Cause Productivity Slowdowns?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 209-276 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Stephen L. Parente & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright, 2000. "Homework in Development Economics: Household Production and the Wealth of Nations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(4), pages 680-687, August.
  3. David Andolfatto & Glenn MacDonald, 1998. "Technology Diffusion and Aggregate Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 338-370, April.
  4. Costas Azariadis & James Bullard & Lee Ohanian, 2001. "Trend-reverting fluctuations in the life-cycle model," Working Papers 1998-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Benhabib, Jess & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1991. "Homework in Macroeconomics: Household Production and Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1166-87, December.
  6. Butz, William P & Ward, Michael P, 1979. "The Emergence of Countercyclical U.S. Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 318-28, June.
  7. Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, 1993. "Working in the Market, Working at Home, and the Acquisition of Skills: A General-Equilibrium Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 893-907, September.
  8. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1986. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," NBER Working Papers 1793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Romer, P.M., 1988. "Capital Accumulation In The Theory Of Long Run Growth," RCER Working Papers 123, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  10. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  11. Razin, Assaf & Ben-Zion, Uri, 1975. "An Intergenerational Model of Population Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 923-33, December.
  12. Paul Gomme & Finn Kydland & Peter Rupert, 2000. "Home production meets time-to-build," Working Paper 0007R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  13. Gordon, Robert J., 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226304557.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2004. "The American Frontier: Technology versus Immigration," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 7, Economie d'Avant Garde.
  2. José Tavares & Tiago V. de V. Cavalcanti, 2004. "Women Prefer Larger Governments: Female Labor Supply and Public Spending," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 119, Econometric Society.
  3. Ferrero Martínez, Dolores & Iza Padilla, María Amaya, 2003. "Skill premium effects on fertility and female labor force supply," DFAEII Working Papers 2002-15, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  4. Cavalcanti, Tiago & Tavares, José, 2006. "Women Prefer Larger Governments: Growth, Structural Transformation and Government Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 5667, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Karen Kopecky, 2005. "The Trend in Retirement," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 12, Economie d'Avant Garde.
  6. Cavalcanti, Tiago & Tavares, José, 2006. "Assessing the 'Engines of Liberation': Home Appliances and Female Labour Force Participation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5665, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2003. "The U.S. Westward Expansion," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 4, Economie d'Avant Garde, revised Apr 2004.

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