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Dynamic predictor selection in a new Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations

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Author Info

  • Branch, William A.
  • McGough, Bruce

Abstract

This paper introduces dynamic predictor selection into a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations and examines its implications for monetary policy. We extend Branch and McGough (2009) by incorporating endogenous time-varying predictor proportions along the lines of Brock and Hommes (1997). We find that periodic orbits and complex dynamics may arise even if the model under rational expectations has a unique stationary solution. The qualitative nature of the non-linear dynamics turns on the interaction between hawkishness of the government's policy and the extrapolative behavior of non-rational agents.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 8 (August)
Pages: 1492-1508

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:8:p:1492-1508

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Heterogeneous expectations Complex dynamics Determinacy Monetary policy;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Heemeijer Peter & Hommes Cars & Sonnemans Joep & Tuinstra Jan, 2012. "An Experimental Study on Expectations and Learning in Overlapping Generations Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-49, October.
  2. Massaro, Domenico, 2013. "Heterogeneous expectations in monetary DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 680-692.
  3. Salle, Isabelle & Yıldızoğlu, Murat & Sénégas, Marc-Alexandre, 2013. "Inflation targeting in a learning economy: An ABM perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 114-128.
  4. Franke, Reiner, 2013. "Competitive Moment Matching of a New-Keynesian and an Old-Keynesian Model," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79988, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  5. Bofinger, Peter & Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2013. "Monetary policy transmission in a model with animal spirits and house price booms and busts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2862-2881.
  6. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Mark Setterfield, Jaylson Jair da Silveira, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Stability with Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2013_11, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).

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