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Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables

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Author Info
George W. Evans () (University of Oregon Economics Department)
Bruce McGough (Oregon State University)

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Abstract

We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and provide alternative representations of SSEs (stationary sunspot equilibria). For a strict subset of the parameter space there exist SSEs that are locally stable under least squares learning provided agents use a common factor representation for their estimated law of motion. These results indicate that for some parameter regions SSEs are more likely to arise under private agent learning than previously recognized.

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File URL: http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2002-16_Evans_Stable_Sunspot.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2002-16.

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Length: 43
Date of creation: 17 Apr 2002
Date of revision: 29 May 2003
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2002-16

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  1. Bennett T. McCallum, 2002. "Consistent Expectations, Rational Expectations, Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies, and Least-Squares Learnability," NBER Working Papers 9218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Stable Indeterminacy with Inertia," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2004-4, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 29 Mar 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Shu-Heng Chen & Chung-Chih Liao & Pei-Jung Chou, 2008. "On the plausibility of sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 25-41, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2005. "Optimal Constrained Interest-rate Rules," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 31 May 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2004. "PPP rules, macroeconomic (In)stability and learning," International Finance Discussion Papers 814, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. William A. Branch & Troy Davig & Bruce McGough, 2007. "Expectational stability in regime-switching rational expectations models," Research Working Paper RWP 07-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  7. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2006. "Stable Finite-State Markov Sunspots," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-13, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Peter von zur Muehlen & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Robustifying Learnability," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 437, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Bennett T. McCallum, 2003. "The Unique Minimum State Variable RE Solution is E-Stable in All Well Formulated Linear Models," NBER Working Papers 9960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Evans , George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2007. "Expectations, learning and monetary policy: an overview of recent research," Research Discussion Papers 32/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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