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Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables

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  • George W. Evans

    ()
    (University of Oregon Economics Department)

  • Bruce McGough

    (Oregon State University)

Abstract

We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and provide alternative representations of SSEs (stationary sunspot equilibria). For a strict subset of the parameter space there exist SSEs that are locally stable under least squares learning provided agents use a common factor representation for their estimated law of motion. These results indicate that for some parameter regions SSEs are more likely to arise under private agent learning than previously recognized.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2002-16.

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Length: 43
Date of creation: 17 Apr 2002
Date of revision: 29 May 2003
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2002-16

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  1. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1994. "Learning, convergence, and stability with multiple rational expectations equilibria," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 1071-1098, May.
  2. Laurence Broze & Christian Gouriéroux & Ariane Szafarz, 1990. "Reduced Forms of Rational Expectations Models," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/647, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  3. Gourieroux, C & Laffont, J J & Monfort, Alain, 1982. "Rational Expectations in Dynamic Linear Models: Analysis of the Solutions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 409-25, March.
  4. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2001. "Existence of Adaptively Stable Sunspot Equilibria Near an Indeterminate Steady State," CESifo Working Paper Series 478, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
  6. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1992. "On the Robustness of Bubbles in Linear RE Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, February.
  7. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
  8. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-181, October.
  9. Duffy John, 1994. "On Learning and the Nonuniqueness of Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Fiat Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 541-553, December.
  10. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1986. "A Complete Characterization of ARMA Solutions to Linear Rational Expectations Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 227-39, April.
  11. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
  12. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
  13. Evans George W. & Honkapohja Seppo, 1994. "On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 142-161, October.
  14. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
  15. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  16. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2003. "Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/37, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076 Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Marco Airaudo & Salvatore Nisticò & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2014. "Learning, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," Working Papers 4/14, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
  4. Berardi, Michele, 2011. "Fundamentalists vs. chartists: Learning and predictor choice dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 776-792, May.
  5. Shu-Heng Chen & Chung-Chih Liao & Pei-Jung Chou, 2008. "On the plausibility of sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 25-41, June.
  6. Cornaro, Alessandra & Agliari, Anna, 2011. "Global and local determinacy in a one-step forward looking New Keynesian model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1354-1362, May.
  7. Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2007. "Instability of sunspot equilibria in real business cycle models under adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 879-903, April.
  8. Berardi, Michele, 2012. "Strategic interactions, incomplete information and learning," MPRA Paper 38651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Berardi, Michele, 2009. "Heterogeneous expectations, sunspot equilibria and their fragility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 276-279, December.
  10. William A. Branch & Troy Davig & Bruce McGough, 2007. "Expectational stability in regime-switching rational expectations models," Research Working Paper RWP 07-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  11. McGough, Bruce & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2013. "Expectational stability of sunspot equilibria in non-convex economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1126-1141.
  12. Berardi, Michele, 2007. "Heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3203-3227, October.

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