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Strategic interactions, incomplete information and learning

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  • Berardi, Michele

Abstract

In a model of incomplete, heterogeneous information, with externalities and strategic interactions, we analyze the possibility for learning to act as coordination device. We build on the framework proposed by Angeletos and Pavan (2007) and extend it to a dynamic multiperiod setting where agents need to learn to coordinate. We analyze conditions under which adaptive and eductive learning obtain, and show that adaptive learning conditions are less demanding than the eductive ones: in particular, when actions are strategic substitutes, the equilibrium is always adaptively learnable, while it might not be eductively so. In case of heterogeneous preferences, moreover, convergence only depends on the average characteristic of agents in the economy. We also show that adaptive learning dynamics converge to the game theoretical strategic equilibrium, which means that agents can learn to act strategically in a simple and straightforward way.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 38651.

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Date of creation: 06 May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38651

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Keywords: Learning; heterogeneity; interaction; coordination;

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  1. Evans George W. & Guesnerie Roger, 1993. "Rationalizability, Strong Rationality, and Expectational Stability," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 632-646, October.
  2. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
  3. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
  4. Guesnerie, R., 1989. "An Exploration of the Eductive Justifications of the Rational Expectations Hypotbesis," DELTA Working Papers 89-24, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  5. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Expectational Stability of Stationary Sunspot Equilibria in a Forward-looking Linear Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 2001-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 14 Jan 2002.
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  8. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  9. Beggs Alan, 2009. "Learning in Bayesian Games with Binary Actions," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, September.
  10. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Dynamic Global Games of Regime Change: Learning, Multiplicity, and the Timing of Attacks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 711-756, 05.
  11. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-22, December.
  12. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1997. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 1687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Evans George W. & Honkapohja Seppo, 1994. "On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 142-161, October.
  14. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
  15. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2002. "Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers, University of Oregon Economics Department 2002-16, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 29 May 2003.
  16. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
  17. Joel Carton & Eran A. Guse, 2010. "Replicator Dynamic Learning in Muth's Model of Price Movements," Working Papers 10-18, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
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