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Implementation Cycles in the New Economy

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  • Scaramozzino, Pasquale
  • Temple, Jonathan
  • Vulkan, Nir

Abstract

The economic boom of the USA in the 1990s was remarkable in its duration, the sustained rise in equipment investment, the reduced volatility of productivity growth, and continued uncertainty about the trend growth rate. In this paper we link these phenomena using an extension of the classic model of implementation cycles due to Shleifer (1986). The key idea is that uncertainty about the trend growth rate can lead firms to bring forward the implementation of innovations, temporarily eliminating expectations-driven business cycles, because delay is risky when beliefs are not common knowledge.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5032.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5032

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Keywords: implementation cycles; multiple equilibria; New Economy;

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  1. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1999. "Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062038, January.
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  9. Pasquale Scaramozzino & Nir Vulkan, 2004. "Uncertainty and Endogenous Selection of Economic Equilibria," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 22-40, 02.
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  14. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
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