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The Power of Sunspots: An Experimental Analysis

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  • Heinemann, Frank
  • Llorente-Saguer, Aniol
  • Fehr, Dietmar

Abstract

We present an experiment in which extrinsic signals may generate sunspot equilibria. The game has a unique symmetric non-sunspot equilibrium, which is also risk dominant. Other equilibria can be ordered according to risk dominance. By comparing treatments with different information structure, we measure the force of extrinsic signals. Results indicate that Sunspot equilibria emerge naturally, if there are salient (but extrinsic) public signals. However, salient private signals of high precision may also cause sunspot-like behavior even though this is no equilibrium. The higher the precision of signals and the easier they can be aggregated, the more powerful they are in dragging behavior away from the risk dominant to risk dominated strategies. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis with number 48724.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc11:48724

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Web page: http://www.socialpolitik.org/
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Keywords: coordination games; strategic uncertainty; sunspot equilibria; irrelevant information;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Bocart, Fabian Y.R.P. & Hafner, Christian M., 2012. "Econometric analysis of volatile art markets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3091-3104.
  2. Alena Myšičková & Song Song & Piotr Majer & Peter N.C. Mohr & Hauke R. Heekeren & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2011. "Risk Patterns and Correlated Brain Activities. Multidimensional statistical analysis of fMRI data with application to risk patterns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-085, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  3. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2013. "Limited higher order beliefs and the welfare effects of public information," Working Papers 1324, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  4. Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2011. "Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-072, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  5. Patrick Cheridito & Ulrich Horst & Michael Kupper & Traian A. Pirvu, 2011. "Equilibrium Pricing in Incomplete Markets under Translation Invariant Preferences," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-083, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  6. Jasmina Arifovic & Janet Hua Jiang, 2014. "Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs," Working Papers 14-12, Bank of Canada.
  7. Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Nicolaas J. Vriend, 2008. "On the role of non-equilibrium focal points as coordination devices," Economics Working Papers 1064, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  8. Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  9. Ulrich Horst & Michael Kupper & Andrea Macrina & Christoph Mainberger, 2011. "Continuous Equilibrium under Base Preferences and Attainable Initial Endowments," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-082, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  10. Raffaele Fiocco, 2011. "Competition and regulation in a differentiated good market," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-084, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  11. Jasmina Arifovic & George Evans & Olena Kostyshyna, 2013. "Are Sunspots Learnable? An Experimental Investigation in a Simple General-Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 13-14, Bank of Canada.

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