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Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Perceptions and Expectations - The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment

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Author Info
Dohmen, Thomas J
Falk, Armin
Huffman, David
Sunde, Uwe

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Abstract

Prominent economic theories have emphasized the role of commonly held perceptions and expectations for determining macroeconomic outcomes. A key empirical question is how such collectively held beliefs are formed. We use the FIFA World Cup 2006 as a natural experiment. We provide direct evidence that seemingly irrelevant events (the outcomes of soccer matches) can systematically affect individual perceptions about economic prospects, both on a personal and economy-wide level.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5851.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5851

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Related research
Keywords: expectation formation; macroeconomic outcomes; psychology; soccer World Cup; sunspots;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D0 - Microeconomics - - General
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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  1. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995. "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
    Other versions:
  3. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 1-19, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1997. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 1687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

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