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Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Economic Perceptions and Expectations: The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment

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Author Info
Thomas Dohmen () (IZA Bonn)
Armin Falk () (IZA Bonn and University of Bonn)
David Huffman () (IZA Bonn)
Uwe Sunde () (IZA Bonn and University of Bonn)

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Abstract

Prominent economic theories have emphasized the role of commonly held perceptions and expectations for determining macroeconomic outcomes. A key empirical question is how such collectively held beliefs are formed. We use the FIFA World Cup 2006 as a natural experiment. We provide direct evidence that seemingly irrelevant events (the outcomes of soccer matches) can systematically affect individual perceptions about economic prospects, both on a personal and economy-wide level.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2275.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2275

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Related research
Keywords: expectation formation; sunspots; soccer world cup; macroeconomic outcomes; psychology;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
D0 - Microeconomics - - General
E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1997. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 1687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995. "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
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  4. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 1-19, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stan du Plessis & Wolfgang Maennig, 2007. "World Cup 2010: South African Economic Perspectives and Perspectives Policy Challenges Informed by the Experience of Germany 2006," Working Papers 004, Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg. [Downloadable!]
  2. Markus Lang & Alexander Rathke & Marco Runkel, 2009. "The Economic Consequences of Foreigner Rules in National Sports Leagues," Working Papers 0103, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised Jul 2009. [Downloadable!]
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