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Limited higher order beliefs and the welfare effects of public information

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  • Camille Cornand
  • Frank Heinemann

Abstract

Purpose - – In games with strategic complementarities, public information about the state of the world has a larger impact on equilibrium actions than private information of the same precision, because the former is more informative about the likely behavior of others. This may lead to welfare-reducing “overreactions” to public signals as shown by Morris and Shin (2002). Recent experiments on games with strategic complementarities show that subjects attach a lower weight to public signals than theoretically predicted. The purpose of this paper is to reconsider the welfare effects of public signals accounting for the weights observed in experiments. Design/methodology/approach - – Aggregate behavior observed in experiments on games with strategic complementarities can be explained by a cognitive hierarchy model where subjects employ limited levels of reasoning. They respond in a rational way to the non-strategic part of a game and they account for other players responding rationally, but they neglect that other players also account for others’ rationality. This paper analyzes the welfare effects of public information under such limited levels of reasoning. Findings - – In the model by Morris and Shin (2002) public information is always welfare improving if strategies are derived from such low reasoning levels. The optimal degree of publicity is decreasing in the levels of reasoning. For the observed average level of reasoning, full transparency is optimal, if public information is more precise than private information. If the policy maker has instruments that are perfect substitutes to private actions, the government should secretly respond to its information without disclosing or signaling it to the private sector independent of the degree of private agents’ rationality. Originality/value - – This paper takes experimental evidence back to theory and shows that the main result obtained by the theory under rational behavior breaks down if theory accounts for the bounded rationality observed in experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2015. "Limited higher order beliefs and the welfare effects of public information," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(6), pages 1005-1028, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:42:y:2015:i:6:p:1005-1028
    DOI: 10.1108/JES-08-2015-0142
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2014. "Measuring agents’ reaction to private and public information in games with strategic complementarities," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(1), pages 61-77, March.
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    7. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin & Hui Tong, 2006. "Social Value of Public Information: Morris and Shin (2002) Is Actually Pro-Transparency, Not Con: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 453-455, March.
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    11. Guido Lorenzoni, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Uncertain Fundamentals and Dispersed Information ," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(1), pages 305-338.
    12. Mr. Mauro F Roca, 2010. "Transparency and Monetary Policy with Imperfect Common Knowledge," IMF Working Papers 2010/091, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Jonathan G. James & Phillip Lawler, 2012. "Strategic Complementarity, Stabilization Policy, and the Optimal Degree of Publicity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(4), pages 551-572, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Trabelsi, Emna & Hichri, Walid, 2021. "Central Bank Transparency with (semi-)public Information: Laboratory Experiments," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2018. "Experiments on macroeconomics: methods and applications," Working Papers 1810, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    3. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2014. "Experiments on Monetary Policy and Central Banking," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 167-227, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Kneeland, Terri, 2016. "Coordination under limited depth of reasoning," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 49-64.
    5. Helland, Leif & Iachan, Felipe S. & Juelsrud, Ragnar E. & Nenov, Plamen T., 2021. "Information quality and regime change: Evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 538-554.
    6. Massenot, Baptiste, 2020. "Pain of Paying in a Business Cycle Model," SAFE Working Paper Series 194, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2020.
    7. Hüning, Hendrik & Meub, Lukas, 2015. "Optimal public information dissemination: Introducing observational learning into a generalized beauty contest," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 260, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    8. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2018. "Experiments on macroeconomics: methods and applications," Working Papers halshs-01809937, HAL.
    9. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2014. "Measuring agents’ reaction to private and public information in games with strategic complementarities," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(1), pages 61-77, March.
    10. Hüning, Hendrik & Meub, Lukas, 2015. "Optimal public information dissemination: Introducing observational learning into a generalized beauty contest," HWWI Research Papers 169, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    11. Banerjee, Sanjay & Qu, Hong & Zhao, Ran, 2022. "Clarity trumps content: An experiment on information acquisition in beauty contests," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 381-407.
    12. Poeschel, Friedrich, 2012. "Assortative matching through signals," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62061, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Hüning, Hendrik & Meub, Lukas, 2016. "Optimal public information dissemination: Introducing multiplier effects into a generalized beauty contest," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 260 [rev.], University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Strategic uncertainty; Coordination games; Levels of reasoning; Private information; Public information; Higher-order beliefs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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