Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Sunspot Fluctuations: A Way Out of a Development Trap?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Sergey Slobodyan

    (Washington University)

Abstract

In dynamic general-equilibrium economic models, equilibrium may be indeterminate, so a continuum of equilibrium trajectories may converge to the same steady state. Often, those mechanisms leading to indeterminacy, like increasing returns to scale, may also lead to multiple steady states and possible underdevelopment traps. But indeterminacy often allows construction of rational sunspot equilibrium as a randomization over different equilibrium trajectories or equilibria. This paper studies "rescuing" an economy from a development trap through sunspot-driven self-fulfilling expectations. The problem is stated as stochastic stability of a system of stochastic differential equations with white noise perturbations from sunspot-driven self-fulfilling expectations. The framework of, Benhabib and Farmer (1994) is used. This deterministic continuous-time model with infinitely lived agents is characterized by increasing social returns to scale due to an imperceived externality in the production function. There are two steady states. One has zero capital and zero consumption (the origin); the other has positive capital and consumption. For some parameter values, both steady states are indeterminate, and the parameter space is separated into two regions of attraction. The region of attraction at the origin is a development trap. If the economy starts in the development trap, it is possible to select a level of consumption to push the system into the positive steady-state region of attraction. However, no individual agent has an incentive to experiment, and everyone coordinates on a trajectory leading to the origin. This could be corrected if agents could form expectations corresponding to a trajectory converging to a positive steady state. Agents are unaware of such a trajectory because the externality is assumed to be unknown. If a sunspot variable - white noise - is added to the model, agents could take it into account when making their decisions. Coordinating on a

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/RePEc/es2000/1720.pdf
File Function: main text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 1720.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1720

Contact details of provider:
Phone: 1 212 998 3820
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Email:
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jordi Galí, 1993. "Monopolistic competition, endogenous markups and growth," Economics Working Papers 44, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Antonio Ciccone & Kiminori Matsuyama, 1993. "Start-up costs and pecuniary externalities as barriers to economic development," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 83, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Galí, Jordi & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1994. "Endogenous Growth and Poverty Traps in a Cournotian Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 1052, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," Discussion Papers 878, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  5. Duffy John, 1994. "On Learning and the Nonuniqueness of Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Fiat Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 541-553, December.
  6. Burguet, Roberto & Fernandez-Ruiz, Jorge, 1998. "Growth through taxes or borrowing? A model of development traps with public capital," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 327-344, May.
  7. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1994. "Learning, convergence, and stability with multiple rational expectations equilibria," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 1071-1098, May.
  8. Azariadis, Costas & Drazen, Allan, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-26, May.
  9. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
  10. Spear, Stephen E., 1991. "Growth, externalities, and sunspots," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 215-223, June.
  11. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
  12. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  13. Drugeon, Jean-Pierre & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 1996. "Continuous-Time Sunspot Equilibria and Dynamics in a Model of Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 24-52, April.
  14. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  15. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1986. "Adaptive Behavior and Economic Theory," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages S401-26, October.
  16. Grandmont Jean-michel, 1985. "Stabilizing competitive business cycles," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8518, CEPREMAP.
  17. Arifovic, Jasmina & Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1997. " The Transition from Stagnation to Growth: An Adaptive Learning Approach," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 185-209, July.
  18. Gans, Joshua S., 1998. "Time Lags and Indicative Planning in a Dynamic Model of Industrialization," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 103-130, June.
  19. Spear, Stephen E. & Srivastava, Sanjay & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Indeterminacy of stationary equilibrium in stochastic overlapping generations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 265-284, April.
  20. Lee, Jaewoo, 1996. "Financial development by learning," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 147-164, June.
  21. Baland, Jean-Marie & Francois, Patrick, 1996. "Innovation, monopolies and the poverty trap," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 151-178, April.
  22. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Stationary sunspot equilibria in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 128-137, October.
  23. Salyer, Kevin D. & Sheffrin, Steven M., 1998. "Spotting sunspots: Some evidence in support of models with self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 511-523, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1720. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.