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Endogenous Strategic Business Cycles

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This paper examines an overlapping generations version of the Shapley-Shubik market game. We show existence of equilibria for the simple one commodity model and analyze the dynamics of the equilibrium trajectories generated in the model. Because of the non-linearities generated by strategic interaction of agents in the model, we find that complex and chaotic equilibrium dynamics are possible in this model for a much broader range of preferences than those for which Grandmont (1985) found complicated dynamics in the perfectly competitive version of this model. These results, then, provide an alternative to the usual technology-based explanation for the historical fact that business cycles became an important economic phenomenon only with the onset of industrialization.

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Paper provided by Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business in its series GSIA Working Papers with number 2.

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Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:2

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Postal: Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
Web page: http://www.tepper.cmu.edu/

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  1. Spear, Stephen E., 1985. "Rational expectations in the overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 251-275, August.
  2. Jess Benhabib & Roger E.A. Farmer, 1992. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," UCLA Economics Working Papers 646, UCLA Department of Economics.
  3. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
  4. Forges, Francoise & Peck, James, 1995. "Correlated Equilibrium and Sunspot Equilibrium," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 33-50, January.
  5. Gali Jordi, 1994. "Monopolistic Competition, Business Cycles, and the Composition of Aggregate Demand," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 73-96, June.
  6. Peck, James & Shell, Karl, 1991. "Market Uncertainty: Correlated and Sunspot Equilibria in Imperfectly Competitive Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(5), pages 1011-29, October.
  7. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
  8. Spear, Stephen E. & Srivastava, Sanjay & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Indeterminacy of stationary equilibrium in stochastic overlapping generations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 265-284, April.
  9. Shapley, Lloyd S & Shubik, Martin, 1977. "Trade Using One Commodity as a Means of Payment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 937-68, October.
  10. Balasko, Yves & Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1980. "Existence of competitive equilibrium in a general overlapping-generations model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 307-322, December.
  11. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  12. Balasko, Yves & Shell, Karl, 1980. "The overlapping-generations model, I: The case of pure exchange without money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 281-306, December.
  13. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
  14. Peck, James & Shell, Karl & Spear, Stephen E., 1992. "The market game: existence and structure of equilibrium," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 271-299.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Peck, James, 2003. "Large market games with demand uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 283-299, April.
  2. Polemarchakis, Herakles M. & Ray, Indrajit, 2006. "Sunspots, correlation and competition," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 174-184, July.
  3. Ghosal, Sayantan & Morelli, Massimo, 2004. "Retrading in market games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 151-181, March.
  4. William A. Barnett & Yijun He, 1999. "Center Manifold, Stability, and Bifurcations in Continuous Time Macroeconometric Systems," Macroeconomics 9901002, EconWPA.
  5. Aditya Goenka & Lin Liu, 2012. "Infectious diseases and endogenous fluctuations," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 125-149, May.
  6. William Barnett & Yijun He, 2012. "Stabilization Policy as Bifurcation Selection: Would Keynesian Policy Work if the World Really Were Keynesian?," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201228, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
  7. Goenka, Aditya & Poulsen, Odile, 2004. "Factor Intensity Reversal and Ergodic Chaos," Working Papers 04-13, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
  8. Orrego, Fabrizio, 2011. "Demografía y precios de activos," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 22, pages 83-101.
  9. Goenka, Aditya, 2003. "Informed trading and the 'leakage' of information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 360-377, April.
  10. Kunieda, Takuma, 2008. "Finance and Growth Cycles," MPRA Paper 11340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Michele Breton, Pascal St-Amour and D. Vencatachellum, 2001. "Dynamic Production Teams with Strategic Behavior," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 89, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Amir, Rabah & Bloch, Francis, 2009. "Comparative statics in a simple class of strategic market games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 7-24, January.
  13. Bloch, Francis & Ferrer, Helene, 2001. "Trade Fragmentation and Coordination in Strategic Market Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 301-316, November.

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