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Demografía y precios de activos

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  • Orrego, Fabrizio

Abstract

Durante el siglo XX se observó una tasa de natalidad cíclica en los EEUU: 52 millones de personas nacieron entre 1925 a 1944, 79 millones de 1945 a 1964, y 69 millones entre 1965 y 1984. Estos nacimientos condicionaron el comportamiento del ratio de adultos a jóvenes (ratio AJ). Este trabajo estudia los efectos del cambio demográfico, medido por el ratio AJ, sobre el ratio precio-ganancias (PER) y la tasa de interés real en la posguerra. Se construye un modelo de generaciones traslapadas con intercambio puro en el que la evolución del ratio AJ da lugar a ciclos exógenos. Por un lado, el modelo predice que el PER debe estar en fase con el ratio AJ. Por otro lado, dado que la tasa de interés se ajusta para prevenir oportunidades de arbitraje, el modelo también predice que la tasa de interés real debe moverse inversamente con el ratio AJ, excepto después del punto más alto de este ratio. Finalmente, la introducción de altruismo y hábitos de consumo contribuye a mejorar las predicciones cuantitativas del modelo original con efectos demográficos puros.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its journal Revista Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): 22 ()
Pages: 83-101

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Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-22-05

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