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Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market

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Author Info
Author-Name: John Geanakoplos (Yale University)
Michael Magill (University of Southern California)
Martine Quinzii (University of California, Davis)

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Abstract

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File URL: http://www.brookings.edu/press/Journals/2004/brookingspapersoneconomicactivity12004.aspx
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution in its journal Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.

Volume (Year): 35 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2004-1 ()
Pages: 241-326
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:35:y:2004:i:2004-1:p:241-326

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Related research
Keywords: macroeconomics; Demography; Long-Run Predictability; Stock Market;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrew B. Abel, 2003. "The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 551-578, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Kenneth R. French & James M. Poterba, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 3609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Philip R. Lane & G.M. Milesi-Ferretti, 2003. "International Financial Integration," Trinity Economics Papers 20031, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Finis Welch, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," UCLA Economics Working Papers 146, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will Bequests Attenuate the Predicted Meltdown in Stock Prices When Baby Boomers Retire?," NBER Working Papers 8131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Andrew Ang & Angela Maddaloni, 2003. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data," NBER Working Papers 9677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Modigliani, Franco, 1986. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. George M. Constantinides & John B. Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, . "Junior Can't borrow: A New Perspective on the Equity Premium Puzzle."," CRSP working papers 457, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
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  11. Monika BÜTLER & Philipp HARMS, 2001. "Old folks and spoiled brats : Why the baby boomers' saving crisis need not be that bad," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 01.07, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Tesar, Linda L. & Werner, Ingrid M., 1995. "Home bias and high turnover," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 467-492, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Steven A. Sass & Robert K. Triest, 1997. "Social Security: how social and secure should it be?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 29-63. [Downloadable!]
  14. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2001. "Is the Stock Market Overvalued?," NBER Working Papers 8077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Modigliani, Franco, 1988. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers and Life Cycle Saving in the Accumulation of Wealth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 15-40, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1994. "Baby Boom, Population Aging, and Capital Markets," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 165-202, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1295, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Stock prices and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Basu, Parantap, 1987. "An Adjustment Cost Model of Asset Pricing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 609-21, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages S65-97, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May. [Downloadable!]
  25. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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