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Old folks and spoiled brats : Why the baby boomers' saving crisis need not be that bad

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Author Info
Monika BÜTLER
Philipp HARMS

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Abstract

We study the impact of an anticipated "baby boom" in an overlapping generations economy. The rise of the working population lowers the wage, and the high demand for assets causes a rise in the price of capital which will be reversed when the baby boomers leave the work-force. However, the swings in factor prices are substantially dampened if we allow for more than two generations, endogenous labor supply, and convex capital adjustment costs. This is mainly due to the intertemporal shifts in labor market participation that can be observed if agents work for more than one period. Optimal saving and labor supply decisions of the baby boomers' preceding and subsequent generations partly offset the impact of the unfavorable demographic shock. Accordingly, the impact of a baby boom on the welfare of different generations crucially depends on the elasticity of labor supply.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP in its series Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) with number 01.07.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:01.07

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Postal: Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, Internef, CH-1015 Lausanne
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Web page: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/publications-english/e-cahiers.htm

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Related research
Keywords: baby boom; asset prices; labour market adjustments;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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  1. José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2001. "Population Changes and Capital Accumulation: The Aging of the Baby Boom," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
  2. Welch, Finis, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages S65-97, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Andrew B. Abel, 2002. "The effects of a baby boom on stock prices and capital accumulation in the presence of Social Security," Working Papers 03-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Finis Welch, 1979. "Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies' Financial Bust," UCLA Economics Working Papers 146, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2004. "Demography and the Long Run Behavior of the Stock Market," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000643, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Philipp Harms & Philipp an de Meulen, 2009. "The Demographics of Expropriation Risk," Working Papers 09.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
  3. Garry Young, . "The implications of an ageing population for the UK economy," Bank of England working papers 159, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2002. "Demography and the Long-run Predictability of the Stock Market," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1380R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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