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Will bequests attenuate the predicted meltdown in stock prices when baby boomers retire?

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Author Info
Andrew B. Abel

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Abstract

Jim Poterba finds that consumers do not spend all of their assets during retirement, and he projects that the demand for assets will remain high when the baby boomers retire. Based on his forecast of continued high demand for capital, Poterba rejects the asset market meltdown hypothesis, which predicts a fall in stock prices when the baby boomers retire. ; The author develops a rational expectations general equilibrium model with a bequest motive and an aggregate supply curve for capital. In this model, a baby boom generates an increase in stock prices, and stock prices are rationally anticipated to fall when the baby boomers retire, even though, as emphasized by Poterba, consumers do not spend all of their assets during retirement. This finding contradicts Poterba's conclusion that continued high demand for assets by retired baby boomers will prevent a fall in the price of capital.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 01-2.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:01-2

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Related research
Keywords: Stock - Prices ; Retirement;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Andrew B. Abel, 2002. "The effects of a baby boom on stock prices and capital accumulation in the presence of Social Security," Working Papers 03-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Robin Brooks, 2000. "What Will Happen To Financial Markets When The Baby Boomers Retire?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 92, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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