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Inflation determination with Taylor rules: Is new-Keynesian analysis critically flawed?

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  • McCallum, Bennett T.

Abstract

Cochrane (2007) has strongly questioned the basic economic logic of current monetary policy analysis, arguing that New Keynesian (NK) models imply rational expectations paths with explosive inflation that do not imply explosions in real variables relevant for transversality conditions. Consequently, the usual logic does not rule out solutions with explosive inflation. That result does not, however, justify negative conclusions about NK analysis, for a different criterion is logically satisfactory. It is that, to be plausible, a RE solution must satisfy the property of least-squares learnability. Adoption of this criterion serves to justify in principle the bulk of current mainstream analysis.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 56 (2009)
Issue (Month): 8 (November)
Pages: 1101-1108

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:8:p:1101-1108

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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Keywords: Determinacy Transversality Learnability New Keynesian Explosive;

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References

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  1. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," NBER Working Papers 13409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  9. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542 Elsevier.
  10. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, . "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 51, Society for Computational Economics.
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  13. Bennett T. McCallum, 2001. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Models Without Money," NBER Working Papers 8174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Patrick Minford & Naveen Srinivasan, 2011. "Determinacy in New Keynesian Models: A Role for Money after All?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 211-229, 06.
  2. Cochrane, John H., 2009. "Can learnability save new-Keynesian models?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1109-1113, November.
  3. Balfoussia, Hiona & Brissimis, Sophocles & Delis, Manthos D, 2011. "The theoretical framework of monetary policy revisited," MPRA Paper 32236, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2010. "The Barnett Critique After Three Decades: A New Keynesian Analysis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 736, Boston College Department of Economics.
  5. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 3577, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Marco Airaudo & Salvatore Nisticò & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2014. "Learning, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," Working Papers 4/14, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
  7. Blake, Andrew P., 2012. "Determining optimal monetary speed limits," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 269-271.
  8. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2011. "Heterogeneous expectations, Taylor rules and the merit of monetary policy inertia," MPRA Paper 31004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Airaudo, Marco, 2013. "Monetary policy and stock price dynamics with limited asset market participation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-22.
  10. Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2011. "Ruling out unstable equilibria in New Keynesian models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 247-249, September.

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