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Growth cycles and market crashes

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Author Info
Michele Boldrin
David K. Levine

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Abstract

Market booms are often followed by dramatic falls. To explain this requires an asymmetry in the underlying shocks. A straightforward model of technological progress generates asymmetries that are also the source of growth cycles. Assuming a representative consumer, we show that the stock market generally rises, punctuated by occasional dramatic falls. With high risk aversion, bad news causes dramatic increases in prices. Bad news does not correspond to a contraction of existing production possibilities, but to a slowdown in their rate of expansion. This economy provides a model of endogenous growth cycles in which recoveries and recessions are dictated by the adoption of innovations.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 279.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:279

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Related research
Keywords: Financial crises ; Economic development ; Stock exchanges;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. David, Paul A, 1990. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 355-61, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell, 1996. "Can Technology Improvements Cause Productivity Slowdowns?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 209-276 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1997. "Habit persistence and asset returns in an exchange economy," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Zeira, Joseph, 1999. "Informational overshooting, booms, and crashes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 237-257, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 1999. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 116-122, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:2:p:312-32 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1999. "The IT Revolution and the Stock Market," RCER Working Papers 460, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Lee, In Ho, 1998. "Market Crashes and Informational Avalanches," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(4), pages 741-59, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2006. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," Working Papers 2007_33, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Alessandro Barbarino & Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "Shakeouts and Market Crashes," NBER Working Papers 10556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Alessandro Barbarino & Boyan Jovanovic, 2007. "Shakeouts And Market Crashes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(2), pages 385-420, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Michele Boldrin & David K Levine, 2002. "Perfectly Competitive Innovation," Levine's Working Paper Archive 625018000000000192, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2005. "Financial Crisis and Recovery: Learning-based Liquidity Preference Fluctuations," Macroeconomics 0504016, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Han Ozsoylev, 2008. "Amplification and asymmetry in crashes and frenzies," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 157-181, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Scott, A. & Uhlig, H., 1998. "Fickle investors : an impediment to growth?," Discussion Paper 134, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2002. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Orlando Gomes, 2005. "Knowledge creation and technology difusion: a framework to understand economic growth," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 20(2), pages 41-61, December. [Downloadable!]
  9. Leo Kaas & Stefan Zink, 2007. "Human Capital and Growth Cycles," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 19-33, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Klaus, WAELDE, 2003. "Endogenous growth cycles," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2004012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), revised 15 Mar 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Klaus Wälde, 2005. "Endogenous Growth Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(3), pages 867-894, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Horii, Ryo & Ono, Yoshiyasu, 2009. "Information Cycles and Depression in a Stochastic Money-in-Utility Model," MPRA Paper 13485, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Boyan Jovanovic, 2008. "When Should Firms Invest in Old Capital?," NBER Working Papers 14000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. repec:att:wimass:192017 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Adrian Peralta-Alva & Sami Alpanda, 2006. "Oil crisis, Energy Saving Technological Change, and the Stock Market Collapse of 1974," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 49, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2002. "Mergers as Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 9279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2005. "General Purpose Technologies," NBER Working Papers 11093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Alpanda, Sami, 2007. "The Boom-Bust Cycle in Japanese Asset Prices," MPRA Paper 5895, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  18. Olsson, Ola, 2001. "Why Does Technology Advance in Cycles?," Working Papers in Economics 38, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  19. John D. Stiver, 2003. "Technology Creation, Diffusion, and Growth Cycles," Working papers 2003-35, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  20. Lundström, Susanna, 2003. "Technological Opportunities and Growth in the Natural Resource Sector," Working Papers in Economics 116, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  21. Adrian Peralta-Alva & Sami Alpanda, 2004. "Oil Crisis, Energy-Saving Technological Change and the Stock Market Crash of 1973-74," Macroeconomics 0405019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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