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Growth cycles and market crashes

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  • Michele Boldrin
  • David K. Levine

Abstract

Market booms are often followed by dramatic falls. To explain this requires an asymmetry in the underlying shocks. A straightforward model of technological progress generates asymmetries that are also the source of growth cycles. Assuming a representative consumer, we show that the stock market generally rises, punctuated by occasional dramatic falls. With high risk aversion, bad news causes dramatic increases in prices. Bad news does not correspond to a contraction of existing production possibilities, but to a slowdown in their rate of expansion. This economy provides a model of endogenous growth cycles in which recoveries and recessions are dictated by the adoption of innovations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 279.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:279

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Keywords: Financial crises ; Economic development ; Stock exchanges;

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References

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  1. Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1999. "The IT Revolution and the Stock Market," RCER Working Papers 460, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Boyan Jovanovic & Rafael Rob, 1990. "Long Waves and Short Waves: Growth Through Intensive and Extensive Search," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2082, David K. Levine.
  3. Zeira, Joseph, 1993. "Informational Overshooting, Booms and Crashes," CEPR Discussion Papers 823, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jordi Gali, 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  6. David, Paul A, 1990. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 355-61, May.
  7. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1997. "Habit persistence and asset returns in an exchange economy," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  9. Paul David, 2010. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Productivity Paradox," Levine's Working Paper Archive 115, David K. Levine.
  10. Lee, In Ho, 1998. "Market Crashes and Informational Avalanches," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(4), pages 741-59, October.
  11. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell, 1996. "Can Technology Improvements Cause Productivity Slowdowns?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 209-276 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:2:p:312-32 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Boyan Jovanovic & Jeremy Greenwood, 1999. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 116-122, May.
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