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A Robust Rational Route to in a Simple Asset Pricing Model (revised March 2004)

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Author Info
Hommes, C.H. (Universiteit van Amsterdam)
Huang, H.
Wang, D. () (Peking University)

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Abstract

We investigate asset pricing dynamics in an adaptive evolutionary asset pricing model with fundamentalists, trend followers and a market maker. Agents can choose between a fundamentalist strategy at positive information cost or choose a trend following strategy for free. Price adjustment is proportional to the excess demand in the asset market. Agents asynchronously update their strategy according to realized net profits in the recent past. As agents become more sensitive to differences in strategy performance, the fundamental steady state becomes unstable and multiple steady states may arise. As the traders' sensitivity to differences in fitness increases, a bifurcation route to chaos sets in due to homoclinic bifurcations of stable and unstable manifolds of the fundamental steady state.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 02-08.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:02-08

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Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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  1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Tuinstra, Jan, 2000. "A discrete and symmetric price adjustment process on the simplex," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 881-907, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  4. Droste, Edward & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan, 2002. "Endogenous fluctuations under evolutionary pressure in Cournot competition," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 232-269, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Day, Richard H. & Pianigiani, Giulio, 1991. "Statistical dynamics and economics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 37-83, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. William A. Brock, 1993. "Pathways to randomness in the economy: Emergent nonlinearity and chaos in economics and finance," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 8(1), pages 3-55.
    Other versions:
  7. de Vilder, Robin, 1996. "Complicated Endogenous Business Cycles under Gross Substitutability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 416-442, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
  9. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2002. "Speculative behaviour and complex asset price dynamics: a global analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 173-197, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  11. Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-014/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 223, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Westerhoff, Frank, 2003. "Speculative markets and the effectiveness of price limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-508, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market," Working Papers 96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
  15. LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. J. Doyne Farmer & Shareen Joshi, 2000. "The Price Dynamics of Common Trading Strategies," Working Papers 00-12-069, Santa Fe Institute.
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  17. Saari, Donald G, 1985. "Iterative Price Mechanisms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 1117-31, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model with a Market Maker," Research Paper Series 35, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Scaling and Criticality in a Stochastic Multi-Agent Model of a Financial Market," Discussion Paper Serie B 438, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
  20. Goeree, Jacob K. & Hommes, Cars & Weddepohl, Claus, 1998. "Stability and complex dynamics in a discrete tatonnement model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 395-410, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. LeBaron, Blake, 2000. "Agent-based computational finance: Suggested readings and early research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 679-702, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Pintus, Patrick & Sands, Duncan & de Vilder, Robin, 2000. "On the transition from local regular to global irregular fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 247-272, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Herbert E. Scarf, 1959. "Some Examples of Global Instability of the Competitive Equilibrium," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 79, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  24. Yokoo, Masanori, 2000. "Chaotic dynamics in a two-dimensional overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 909-934, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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