Evolution of Market Heuristics
AbstractThe time evolution of aggregate economic variables, such as stock prices, is affected by market expectations of individual investors. Neo-classical economic theory assumes that individuals form expectations rationally, thus enforcing prices to track economic fundamentals and leading to an efficient allocation of resources. However, laboratory experiments with human subjects have shown that individuals do not behave fully rational but instead follow simple heuristics. In laboratory markets prices may show persistent deviations from fundamentals similar to the large swings observed in real stock prices. Here we show that evolutionary selection among simple forecasting heuristics can explain coordination of individual behavior leading to three different aggregate outcomes observed in recent laboratory market forecasting experiments: slow monotonic price convergence, oscillatory dampened price fluctuations and persistent price oscillations. In our model forecasting strategies are selected every period from a small population of plausible heuristics, such as adaptive expectations and trend following rules. Individuals adapt their strategies over time, based on the relative forecasting performance of the heuristics. As a result, the evolutionary switching mechanism exhibits path dependence and matches individual forecasting behavior as well as aggregate market outcomes in the experiments. Our results are in line with recent work on agent-based models of interaction and contribute to a behavioral explanation of universal features of financial markets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 07-06.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Harrison, Richard & Taylor, Tim, 2012. "Non-rational expectations and the transmission mechanism," Bank of England working papers 448, Bank of England.
- Cars Hommes & Thomas Lux, 2008.
"Individual Expectations and Aggregate Behavior in Learning to Forecast Experiments,"
Kiel Working Papers
1466, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Hommes, Cars & Lux, Thomas, 2013. "Individual Expectations And Aggregate Behavior In Learning-To-Forecast Experiments," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 373-401, March.
- Hommes, C.H. & Lux, T., 2009. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Behavior in Learning to Forcast Experiments," CeNDEF Working Papers 09-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Anufriev, M. & Hommes, C.H. & Philipse, R., 2010.
"Evolutionary Selection of Expectations in Positive and Negative Feedback Markets,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
10-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes & Raoul Philipse, 2013. "Evolutionary selection of expectations in positive and negative feedback markets," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 663-688, July.
- Anufriev, M. & Hommes, C.H., 2011. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments (revised version of WP 09-09)," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2011. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design: Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaces CentER DP 2009-007)," Discussion Paper 2011-091, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Anufriev, M. & Arifovic, J. & Ledyard, D. & Panchenko, V., 2010.
"Efficiency of Continuous Double Auctions under Individual Evolutionary Learning with Full or Limited Information,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
10-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Mikhail Anufriev & Jasmina Arifovic & John Ledyard & Valentyn Panchenko, 2013. "Efficiency of continuous double auctions under individual evolutionary learning with full or limited information," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 539-573, July.
- Hommes, C.H., 2007. "Complexity, Evolution and Learning: a simple story of heterogeneous expectations and some empirical and experimental validation," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Valentyn Panchenko & Sergiy Gerasymchuk & Oleg V. Pavlov, 2013. "Asset Price Dynamics with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Local Network Interactions," Discussion Papers 2013-18, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Tim Taylor & Richard Harrison, 2008.
"Misperceptions, heterogeneous expectations and macroeconomic dynamics,"
2008 Meeting Papers
710, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Harrison, Richard & Taylor, Tim, 2012. "Misperceptions, heterogeneous expectations and macroeconomic dynamics," Bank of England working papers 449, Bank of England.
- Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation: Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Discussion Paper 2012-072, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cees C.G. Diks).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.