Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Non-rational expectations and the transmission mechanism

Contents:

Author Info

  • Harrison, Richard

    ()
    (Bank of England)

  • Taylor, Tim

    ()
    (Bank of England)

Abstract

In this paper, we compare two approaches to modelling behaviour under non-rational expectations in a benchmark New Keynesian model. The ‘Euler equation’ approach modifies the equations derived under the assumption of rational expectations by replacing the rational expectations operator with an alternative assumption about expectations formation. The ‘long-horizon’ expectations approach solves the decision rules of households and firms conditional on their expectations for future events that are outside of their control, so that spending and price-setting decisions depend on expectations extending into the distant future. Both approaches can be defended as descriptions of (distinct) forms of boundedly rational behaviour, but have different implications both for the form of the equations that govern the dynamics of the economy and the ease of deriving those equations. In this paper we construct two versions of a benchmark New Keynesian model in which non-rational expectations are modelled using the Euler equation and long-horizon approaches and show that both approaches have very similar implications for macroeconomic dynamics when departures from rational expectations are relatively small. But as expectations depart further from rationality, the two approaches can generate significantly different implications for the behaviour of key variables.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2012/wp448.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 448.

as in new window
Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 18 May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0448

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Publications Group Bank of England Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Email:
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Expectations; monetary transmission mechanism;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Cogley, Timothy W. & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2003. "Bayesian fan charts for UK inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/44, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman & Charles H. Whiteman, 2002. "Forecasting using relative entropy," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2002-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3458, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Harrison, Richard & Taylor, Tim, 2012. "Misperceptions, heterogeneous expectations and macroeconomic dynamics," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England 449, Bank of England.
  6. Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, . "Learning About Monetary Policy Rules," Discussion Papers, Department of Economics, University of York 00/41, Department of Economics, University of York.
  7. Bruce Preston, 2003. "Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
  9. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2008. "The Danger of Inflating Expectations of Macroeconomic Stability: Heuristic Switching in an Overlapping-Generations Monetary Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 219-254, June.
  10. Anufriev, M. & Hommes, C.H., 2007. "Evolution of Market Heuristics," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Harrison, Richard & Taylor, Tim, 2012. "Misperceptions, heterogeneous expectations and macroeconomic dynamics," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England 449, Bank of England.
  2. Burgess, Stephen & Fernandez-Corugedo, Emilio & Groth, Charlotta & Harrison, Richard & Monti, Francesca & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Waldron, Matt, 2013. "The Bank of England's forecasting platform: COMPASS, MAPS, EASE and the suite of models," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England 471, Bank of England.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0448. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publications Team).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.