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Complexity, Evolution and Learning: a simple story of heterogeneous expectations and some empirical and experimental validation

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  • Hommes, C.H.

    ()
    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

Abstract

This note discusses complexity models in economics. A key feature of these models is that agents have heterogeneous expectations, disciplined by adaptive learning and evolutionary selection. Agents adapt their rules based upon past observations and switch between different forecasting heuristics based upon strategy performance. We discuss how these models match empirical facts as well as laboratory experiments with human subjects and how this approach may tame the ``wilderness of bounded rationality''.

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File URL: http://www1.fee.uva.nl/cendef/publications/papers/IPLHommes.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 07-07.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:07-07

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
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Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
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References

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  1. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2004. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 119, Netherlands Central Bank.
  2. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  3. repec:att:wimass:9725 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Anufriev, M. & Hommes, C.H., 2007. "Evolution of Market Heuristics," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  5. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
  6. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Judd, Kenneth L., 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers 10368, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  7. repec:att:wimass:9625 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  9. W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market," Working Papers 96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
  10. Eugene Fama & F. & Kenneth R. French, . "The Equity Premium."," CRSP working papers 522, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  11. Leigh Tesfatsion, 2002. "Agent-Based Computational Economics," Computational Economics 0203001, EconWPA, revised 15 Aug 2002.
  12. LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Orlando Gomes, 2012. "Attentiveness cycles: Synchronized behavior and aggregate fluctuations," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finan├žas, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 66(3), pages 271-288, October.

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