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Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes

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Author Info
Wiliam Branch (University of Californis - Irvine)
George W. Evans () (University of Oregon Economics Department)

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Abstract

This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they generate forecasts of the conditional variance of a stock's return. Recursive updating of the conditional variance and expected return implies two mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices: occasional shocks may lead agents to lower their risk estimate and increase their expected return, thereby triggering a bubble; along a bubble path recursive estimates of risk will increase and crash the bubble.

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File URL: http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2008-1_Evans_Crash.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2008-1.

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Date of creation: 31 Jan 2008
Date of revision: 18 Sep 2008
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2008-1

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Related research
Keywords: Risk asset pricing bubbles adaptive learning.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information

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Cited by:
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  1. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market," Working Papers 070819, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2008-11-16.


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