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Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations

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  • William A. Branch
  • George W. Evans

Abstract

This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expec?tations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents select between predictors that are underparameterized. In a Misspecification Equilib?rium agents only select the best-performing statistical models. We demonstrate that, even when monetary policy rules satisfy the Taylor principle by adjusting nominal interest rates more than one for one with inflation, there may exist equilibria with Intrinsic Heterogeneity. Under certain conditions, there may exist multiple misspecification equilibria. We show that these findings have im?portant implications for business cycle dynamics and for the design of monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 201011.

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Date of creation: 15 Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:1011

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Keywords: Heterogeneous expectations; monetary policy; multiple equilib?ria; adaptive learning.;

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References

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  1. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik H, 2010. "The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7870, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Jean-Robert Tyran & Ernst Fehr, 2002. "Limited Rationality and Strategic Interaction - The Impact of the Strategic Environment on Nominal Inertia," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2002 2002-25, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Honkapohja, S. & Evans, G.W., 2000. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 481, Department of Economics.
  5. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2010. "Asset Return Dynamics and Learning," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1651-1680, April.
  6. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier.
  7. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-21, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 26 Oct 2006.
  8. repec:att:wimass:9530 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2007. "Diverse Beliefs and Time Variability of Risk Premia," Discussion Papers 06-044, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  10. William Branch & Bruce McGough, 2011. "Business cycle amplification with heterogeneous expectations," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 395-421, June.
  11. Kurz, Mordecai & Jin, Hehui & Motolese, Maurizio, 2005. "The role of expectations in economic fluctuations and the efficacy of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2017-2065, November.
  12. Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Evolution and Intelligent Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 5-37, March.
  13. Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, . "Learning About Monetary Policy Rules," Discussion Papers 00/41, Department of Economics, University of York.
  14. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On the Structure and Diversity of Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 877-900, October.
  15. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  16. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
  17. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  18. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  19. Bill Branch & George W. Evans, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-32, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 04 Oct 2004.
  20. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  21. Young, H. Peyton, 2004. "Strategic Learning and its Limits," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199269181, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik H, 2010. "The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7870, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Roger Guesnerie & Pedro Jara-Moroni, 2011. "Expectational coordination in simple economic contexts," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 205-246, June.
  3. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
  4. Gomes, Orlando, 2006. "Nonlinear inflation expectations and endogenous fluctuations," MPRA Paper 2842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Man-Keung Tang & Xiangrong Yu, 2011. "Communication of Central Bank Thinking and Inflation Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 11/209, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Bofinger, Peter & Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2013. "Monetary policy transmission in a model with animal spirits and house price booms and busts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2862-2881.
  7. Machado, Vicente da Gama, 2013. "Monetary policy rules, asset prices and adaptive learning," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 251-258.
  8. John Knight & Stephen Satchell & Nandini Srivastava, 2012. "Steady-State Distributions for Models of Bubbles: their Existence and Econometric Implications," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1208, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  9. Mordecai Kurz, 2011. "Symposium: on the role of market belief in economic dynamics, an introduction," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 189-204, June.
  10. Vicente da Gama Machado, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Asset Prices and Adaptive Learning," Working Papers Series 274, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  11. Carsten Nielsen, 2011. "Price stabilizing, Pareto improving policies," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 459-500, June.
  12. Joseph Haslag & William Brock, 2014. "On Understanding the Cyclical Behavior of the Price Level and Inflation," Working Papers 1404, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 01 Jul 2014.
  13. Gomes, Orlando, 2006. "The dynamics of television advertising with boundedly rational consumers," MPRA Paper 2847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. William Branch & Bruce McGough, 2011. "Business cycle amplification with heterogeneous expectations," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 395-421, June.
  15. Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Top-Down versus Bottom-Up Macroeconomics," CESifo Working Paper Series 3020, CESifo Group Munich.

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