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Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations

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  • William A. Branch
  • George W. Evans

Abstract

This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expec?tations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents select between predictors that are underparameterized. In a Misspecification Equilib?rium agents only select the best-performing statistical models. We demonstrate that, even when monetary policy rules satisfy the Taylor principle by adjusting nominal interest rates more than one for one with inflation, there may exist equilibria with Intrinsic Heterogeneity. Under certain conditions, there may exist multiple misspecification equilibria. We show that these findings have im?portant implications for business cycle dynamics and for the design of monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 1011.

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Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:1011

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Keywords: Heterogeneous expectations; monetary policy; multiple equilib?ria; adaptive learning.;

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  1. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2010. "Asset Return Dynamics and Learning," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1651-1680, April.
  2. William Branch & George W. Evans, 2007. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 207-237, April.
  3. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik H, 2010. "The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7870, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2011. "Diverse beliefs and time variability of risk premia," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 293-335, June.
  5. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824.
  6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  8. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On the Structure and Diversity of Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 877-900, October.
  9. Jean-Robert Tyran & Ernst Fehr, 2002. "Limited Rationality and Strategic Interaction - The Impact of the Strategic Environment on Nominal Inertia," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2002 2002-25, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  10. De Grauwe, Paul, 2010. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/288339, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
  11. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 264-295, March.
  12. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  13. Thomas J Sargent, 2007. "Evolution and Intelligent Design," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001821, UCLA Department of Economics.
  14. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  15. Young, H. Peyton, 2004. "Strategic Learning and its Limits," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199269181, July.
  16. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
  17. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  18. Bennett T. McCallum, 1997. "Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. William Branch & Bruce McGough, 2011. "Business cycle amplification with heterogeneous expectations," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 395-421, June.
  20. Kurz, Mordecai & Jin, Hehui & Motolese, Maurizio, 2005. "The role of expectations in economic fluctuations and the efficacy of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2017-2065, November.
  21. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mordecai Kurz, 2011. "Symposium: on the role of market belief in economic dynamics, an introduction," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 189-204, June.
  2. John Knight & Stephen Satchell & Nandini Srivastava, 2012. "Steady-State Distributions for Models of Bubbles: their Existence and Econometric Implications," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1208, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  3. Man-Keung Tang & Xiangrong Yu, 2011. "Communication of Central Bank Thinking and Inflation Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 11/209, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Gomes, Orlando, 2006. "The dynamics of television advertising with boundedly rational consumers," MPRA Paper 2847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Carsten Nielsen, 2011. "Price stabilizing, Pareto improving policies," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 459-500, June.
  6. Volker Wieland & Maik Wolters, 2010. "The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy," CFS Working Paper Series 2010/08, Center for Financial Studies.
  7. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2011. "Diverse beliefs and time variability of risk premia," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 293-335, June.
  8. Vicente da Gama Machado, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Asset Prices and Adaptive Learning," Working Papers Series 274, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. William Branch & Bruce McGough, 2011. "Business cycle amplification with heterogeneous expectations," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 395-421, June.
  10. Lena Dräger, 2010. "Why don't people pay attention? Endogenous Sticky Information in a DSGE Model," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201002, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  11. Orlando Gomes, 2010. "Nonlinear Inflation Expectations and Endogenous Fluctuations," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 263-280, November.
  12. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
  13. Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Top-Down versus Bottom-Up Macroeconomics," CESifo Working Paper Series 3020, CESifo Group Munich.
  14. Roger Guesnerie & Pedro Jara-Moroni, 2011. "Expectational coordination in simple economic contexts," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 205-246, June.

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