Poor hand or poor play? the rise and fall of inflation in the U.S

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Poor hand or poor play? the rise and fall of inflation in the U.S

Author Info

Francois R. Velde

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Francois Velde

Abstract

Inflation in the U.S. rose in the 1970s and fell in the 1980s and 1990s. The conventional story attributes this pattern to changes in monetary policy. Policymakers made errors and learned from them. This article presents the story and existing alternatives that emphasize instead changes beyond the Fed's control. The author also reviews the recent empirical literature on the role played by changes in luck versus changes in policy and finds substantial evidence for both.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its journal Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): Q I ()
Pages: 34-51
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2004:i:qi:p:34-51:n:v.28no.1

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Cited by:
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Jeffrey M. Lacker & John A. Weinberg, 2007. "Inflation and unemployment: a layperson's guide to the Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 201-227. [Downloadable!]
Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2007. "Perhaps the FOMC Did What It Said It Did: An Alternative Interpretation of the Great Inflation," Working Papers 07-19, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2005. "Perhaps the FOMC did what it said it did : an alternative interpretation of the Great Inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 05-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, . "The danger of inflating expectations of macroeconomic stability: heuristic switching in an overlapping generations monetary model," Bank of England working papers 303, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2008. "The Danger of Inflating Expectations of Macroeconomic Stability: Heuristic Switching in an Overlapping-Generations Monetary Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 219-254, June. [Downloadable!]

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