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Bayesian Soft Target Zones

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Author Info
Forbes, C.S.
Kofman, P.
Abstract

Several authors have postulated econometric models for exchange rates restricted to lie within known target zones. However, it is not uncommon to observe exchange rate data with known limits that are not fully 'credible'; that is, where some of the observations fall outside the stated range. An empirical model for exchange rates in a soft target zone where there is a controlled probability of the observed rates exceeding the stated limits is developed in this paper. A Bayesian approach is used to analyse the model, which is then demonstrated on Deutschemark-French franc and ECU-French franc exchange rate data.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2000/wp4-00.pdf
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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 4/2000.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2000-4

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Related research
Keywords: Bayesian estimation; griddy-Gibbs sampler; credible target zones; soft margins; European Monetary System;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Kofman, Paul & de Vaal, Albert & de Vries, Casper G., 1993. "Fixing soft margins," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 359-374, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1997. "The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 1157-68, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Honohan, Patrick, 1998. "A pitfall in computing exchange rate density in the EMS band," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 839-853, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mizrach, Bruce, 1995. "Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-657, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kees G. Koedijk & Philip A. Stork & Casper G. De Vries, 1998. "An EMS target zone model in discrete time," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 31-48. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Timo Terasvirta, 2004. "A Time Series Model for an Exchange Rate in a Target Zone with Applications," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 340, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2005. "Expectations Anchoring in Inflation Targeting Regimes," Working Papers 0503, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2006. "The optimal degree of exchange rate flexibility: A target zone approach," Working Papers 06.22, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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