Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Vector Autoregression and Causality: A Theoretical Overview and Simulation Study

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

This paper provides a theoretical overview of Wald tests for Granger causality in levels vector autoregressions (VAR's) and Johansen-type error correction models (ECM's) for VAR models the results for inference are not encouraging. The limit theory typically involves nonstandard distributions and nuisance parameters, and there is no sound statistical basis for testing causality in such a framework. Granger causality tests in ECM's also suffer from nuisance parameter dependencies asymptotically and nonstandard limit theory. But, in spite of these difficulties Johansen-type ECM's do offer a sound basis for empirical testing of the rank of the cointegration space and the rank of key submatrices that influence the asymptotics. In consequence, we recommend some operational procedures for conducting Granger causality tests in the important practical case of testing the causal effects of one variable on another group of variables and vice versa.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d10a/d1001.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1001.

as in new window
Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Oct 1991
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Econometric Reviews (1994), 13(2): 259-285
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1001

Note: CFP 890.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

Related research

Keywords: Error correction models; Granger causality; Wald test cointegration; vector autoregression;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
  2. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  3. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1993. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1047, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Some Exact Distribution Theory for Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Cointegrating Coefficients in Error Correction Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1039, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 0033, European Central Bank.
  5. Pierre St-Amant & David Tessier, 2000. "Résultats empiriques multi-pays relatifs à l'impact des cibles d'inflation sur la crédibilité de la politique monétaire," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(3), pages 295-310, September.
  6. Judith A. Clarke & Sadaf Mirza, 2003. "Some Finite Sample Results On Testing For Granger Noncausality," Econometrics Working Papers 0305, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  7. Greasley, David & Oxley, Les, 2007. "Patenting, intellectual property rights and sectoral outputs in Industrial Revolution Britain, 1780-1851," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 340-354, August.
  8. DUFOUR, Jean-Marie & JOUINI, Tarek, 2005. "Finite-Sample Simulation-Based Inference in VAR Models with Applications to Order Selection and Causality Testing," Cahiers de recherche 16-2005, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  9. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Pelletier, Denis & Renault, Eric, 2006. "Short run and long run causality in time series: inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 337-362, June.
  10. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Unidentified Components in Reduced Rank Regression Estimation of ECM's," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1003, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Graham Elliott & James H. Stock, 1992. "Inference in Time Series Regression When the Order of Integration of a Regressor is Unknown," NBER Technical Working Papers 0122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Gianluca Cubadda & Domenico Mignacca, 1994. "Is Money Neutral? Some Evidence for Italy," International Finance 9410001, EconWPA, revised 09 Nov 1994.
  13. Liu Hongyu & Yun W. Park & Zheng Siqi, 2002. "The Interaction between Housing Investment and Economic Growth in China," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 5(1), pages 40-60.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Glena Ames).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.