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Do Changes in Democracy Affect the Political Budget Cycle? Evidence from Mexico

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  • Gonzalez, Maria de los Angeles
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    Abstract

    The previous empirical literature in opportunistic election cycles attempts to identify whether there is a significant impact of the election calendar on economic policy. The econometric analysis implemented in this paper goes a step further, seeking to test whether a country's time-varying degree of democracy affects the way in which economic policy is chosen as elections approach. A simple econometric model is estimated for the case of Mexico's fiscal policy between 1957 and 1997. The estimation reveals the government's strong systematic use of public spending in infrastructure and current transfers as a means to earn votes. Most importantly, we show that the magnitude of the election cycle has been exacerbated during the country's most democratic episodes. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Development Economics.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 204-24

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:6:y:2002:i:2:p:204-24

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    Cited by:
    1. Drazen, Allan & Eslava, Marcela, 2010. "Electoral manipulation via voter-friendly spending: Theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 39-52, May.
    2. Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2012. "Political budget cycles in the European Union and the impact of political pressures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 295-327, December.
    3. Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "A theory of political cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 1166-1186, May.
    4. Block, Steven A., 2003. "Political conditions and currency crises in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 287-309, September.
    5. Ebrima Faal, 2007. "Political Budget Cycles in Papua New Guinea," IMF Working Papers 07/219, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Sakurai, Sergio Naruhiko & Menezes, Naercio, 2010. "Opportunistic and Partisan Election Cycles in Brazil: New Evidence at the Municipal Level," Insper Working Papers wpe_208, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    7. Rodriguez-Oreggia, Eduardo & Rodriguez-Pose, Andres, 2004. "The Regional Returns of Public Investment Policies in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1545-1562, September.
    8. Marcela Eslava, 2006. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy: Survey," IDB Publications 40058, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Santolini, Raffaella, 2011. "Do electoral rules and elections matter in expenditure fragmentation? Empirical evidence from Italian regions," MPRA Paper 29724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Allan Drazen & Marcela Eslava, 2005. "Electoral Manipulation via Expenditure Composition: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Cousins, Mel, 2007. "Political budget cycles and social security budget increases in the Republic of Ireland, 1923-2005," MPRA Paper 5359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Roberto Pasten & James P. Cover, 2010. "The Political Economy of Unsustainable Fiscal Deficits," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 47(136), pages 169-189.
    13. Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 2008. "Political Business Cycles through Lobbying," THEMA Working Papers 2008-18, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    14. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2012. "Do elections affect the composition of fiscal policy in developed, established democracies?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 325-362, April.
    15. Toke Aidt & Graham Mooney, 2014. "Voter suffrage and the political budget cycle: evidence from the London Metropolitan Boroughs 1902-1937," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1401, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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