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Partisan politics and stock market performance: The effect of expected government partisanship on stock returns in the 2002 German federal election

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Author Info

  • Roland Füss
  • Michael Bechtel

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Abstract

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11127-007-9250-1
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 135 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 131-150

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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:135:y:2008:i:3:p:131-150

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332

Related research

Keywords: Government partisanship; Stock market performance; Elections; GARCH modeling; Political information; Price formation; C12; G12; G38;

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References

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  1. Gartner, Manfred & Wellershoff, Klaus W., 1995. "Is there an election cycle in American stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 387-410.
  2. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  3. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  4. Riley, William B. & Luksetich, William A., 1980. "The Market Prefers Republicans: Myth or Reality," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 541-560, September.
  5. Karpoff, Jonathan M, 1986. " A Theory of Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1069-87, December.
  6. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September.
  7. Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
  8. Liesenfeld, Roman, 1998. "Dynamic Bivariate Mixture Models: Modeling the Behavior of Prices and Trading Volume," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 101-09, January.
  9. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Imai, Masami & Shelton, Cameron A., 2011. "Elections and political risk: New evidence from the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 837-849.
  2. Boutchkov, Maria & Doshi, Hitesh & Durnev, Art & Molchanov, Alexander, 2008. "Politics and Volatility," CEI Working Paper Series 2008-10, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  3. Gabriel Rodríguez & Alfredo Vargas, 2012. "Impacto de expectativas políticas en los retornos del Índice General de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima," Revista Economía, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 35(70), pages 190-223.
  4. Pau Castells & Francesc Trillas, 2013. "The effects of surprise political events on quoted firms: the March 2004 election in Spain," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 83-112, March.
  5. Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Is German domestic social policy politically controversial?," Munich Reprints in Economics 19274, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  6. Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: Empirical evidence from 1951-2006," Munich Reprints in Economics 19272, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  7. K. Arin & Alexander Molchanov & Otto Reich, 2013. "Politics, stock markets, and model uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 23-38, August.
  8. Osterloh, Steffen, 2012. "Words speak louder than actions: The impact of politics on economic performance," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 318-336.
  9. Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Demir, Ender & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2013. "Experience-based corporate corruption and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 1-13.
  10. Pau Castells & Francesc Trillas, 2008. "Political parties and the economy: Macro convergence, micro partisanship?," Working Papers 2008/1, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  11. Jorge Hargrave Gonçalves Da Silva, 2014. "Partisan Politics And Country Risk: Evidence From The 2002 Brazilian Presidential Election," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 041, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  12. Christoph Schinke, 2014. "Government Ideology, Globalization, and Top Income Shares in OECD Countries," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 181, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  13. Masami Imai & Cameron A. Shelton, 2010. "Elections and Political Risk: New Evidence from Political Prediction Markets in Taiwan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2010-001, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  14. Lskavyan, Vahe, 2014. "Donor–recipient ideological differences and economic aid," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 345-347.

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