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Fiscal policy rules for stabilisation and growth: A simulation analysis of deficit and expenditure targets in a monetary union

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  • Bruck, Tilman
  • Zwiener, Rudolf

Abstract

We analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policy rules for business cycle stabilisation in a monetary union using a quarterly macro-econometric model of Germany. The simulations compare a deficit target and an expenditure target under a range of supply, demand and fiscal shocks. Their effects are evaluated by their impact on prices and output. The analysis demonstrates that in general the deficit target of the stability pact leads to less stabilisation than an expenditure target. The results suggest that the deficit rule of the stability pact should be replaced with an expenditure rule augmented by medium-term debt targets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Pages: 357-369

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:28:y:2006:i:4:p:357-369

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Fabian Lindner & Rudolf Zwiener, 2013. "Nur das Angebot zählt?," IMK Report 87-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  2. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Fabian Lindner & Rudolf Zwiener, 2013. "Is the supply side all that counts?," IMK Report 87e-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  3. Onorante, Luca & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J. & Signorini, Sara, 2008. "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0901, European Central Bank.
  4. Ferré Carracedo, Montserrat, 2011. "The effects of uncertainty about countries' compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact," Working Papers 2072/169686, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  5. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Sanchez Fuentes, Jesus & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2010. "Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1266, European Central Bank.
  6. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.
  7. Golinelli, Roberto & Momigliano, Sandro, 2006. "Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 943-964, December.
  8. Paolo Biraschi, . "Searching for the optimal EMU fiscal rule:an ex-post analysis of the SGP reform proposals," Working Papers wp2008-7, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  9. Roberto Golinelli & Sandro Momigliano, 2006. "Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area: Fiscal rules, cyclical conditions and elections," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 609, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  10. Kenneth Lewis & Laurence Seidman, 2006. "Overcoming the Zero Interest-Rate Bound: A Quantitative Prescription," Working Papers 06-14, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  11. Ahmad, Nazneen & Xiao, Wei, 2013. "End of double taxation: Is the policy better when announced?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 928-942.
  12. Bonatti, Luigi & Cristini, Annalisa, 2008. "Breaking the Stability Pact: Was it predictable?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 793-810.
  13. Aurélien Eyquem, 2007. "Fiscal Policy in an Estimated Model of the European Monetary Union," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 200705, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
  14. Escario, Regina & Gadea, María Dolores & Sabaté, Marcela, 2012. "Multicointegration, seigniorage and fiscal sustainability. Spain 1857–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 270-283.
  15. Menguy, Séverine, 2008. "A dynamic rule applied to the threshold imposed on the European budgetary deficits," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1093-1105.
  16. Ferré, Montserrat, 2008. "Fiscal policy coordination in the EMU," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 221-235.

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