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Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy: the OECD 1981-2003

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  • Julia Darby
  • Jacques Melitz

Abstract

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, School of Management and Languages, Heriot Watt University in its series Heriot-Watt University Economics Discussion Papers with number 1210.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hwe:hwuedp:1210

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Cited by:
  1. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2011. "Real-time data and fiscal policy analysis: a survey of the literature," Working Papers 11-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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