Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy in the EU

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Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy in the EU

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Beetsma, Roel
Giuliodori, Massimo
Wierts, Peter

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Abstract

Using real-time data from Europe's Stability and Convergence Programs, we explore how fiscal plans and their implementation in the EU are determined. We find that (1) implemented budgetary adjustment falls systematically short of planned adjustment and this shortfall increases with the projection horizon, (2) variability in the eventual fiscal outcomes is dominated by the implementation errors, (3) there is a limited role for "traditional" political variables, (4) stock-flow adjustments are more important when plans are more ambitious, and (5), most importantly, both the ambition in fiscal plans and their implementation benefit from stronger national fiscal institutions. We emphasise also the importance of credible plans for the eventual fiscal outcomes.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7285.

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Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7285

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2009-05-09 (All new papers)
NEP-CBA-2009-05-09 (Central Banking)
NEP-EEC-2009-05-09 (European Economics)
NEP-MAC-2009-05-09 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-PUB-2009-05-09 (Public Finance)

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