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From Deficits to Debt and Back: Political Incentives under Numerical Fiscal Rules

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Author Info
Marco Buti
João Nogueira Martins
Alessandro Turrini

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Abstract

Under numerical fiscal rules, such as those underpinning EMU, governments have strong temptations to use accounting tricks to meet the fiscal constraints. Given these political incentives, fiscal variables that in the past were regarded as a mere residual acquire a strategic role. This is the case of the so-called stock-flow adjustment (SFA) which reconciles deficit and debt developments. We develop a simple theoretical model where deficits and two distinct SFA components (one that could be used to reduce the deficit figures and the other to impact debt figures instead) are determined as a result of a constrained optimisation by fiscal authorities. Econometric evidence provides results consistent with the model findings. The SFA component related to the purpose to hide deficits rises with the recorded deficit, while the sales of financial assets designed to keep the debt under control rise with both debt and deficit. When deficits are in excess of the 3 percent limit, accounting gimmicks become more sensitive to the size of deficits. The SGP per se does not appear to increase the extent to which higher deficits trigger more accounting gimmicks. However, the SGP seems associated with a more intense use of accounting gimmicks irrespective of the level of deficit. Such accounting practices have greatly contributed to the loss of credibility of Economic and Monetary Union's fiscal rules. If properly implemented, the reformed Pact, which stresses durable adjustment and long-run sustainability, should help curb such perverse incentives. (JEL codes: E61, H62, H87) Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

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Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal CESifo Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 53 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 115-152
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Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:53:y:2007:i:1:p:115-152

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  1. Dafflon, Bernard & Rossi, Sergio, 1999. " Public Accounting Fudges towards EMU: A First Empirical Survey and Some Public Choice Considerations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 101(1-2), pages 59-84, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. William Easterly, 1999. "When is fiscal adjustment an illusion?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 14(28), pages 55-86, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Marco Buti & Paul Noord, 2004. "Fiscal Discretion and Elections in the Early Years of EMU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 737-756, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kenji Moriyama & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "Fiscal Adjustment in EU Countries: A Balance Sheet Approach," IMF Working Papers 04/143, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  5. von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolff, Guntram B., 2004. "What do deficits tell us about debt? : Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,38, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Balassone, F. & Manacelli, D., 2000. "Emu Fiscal Rules: is There a Gap?," Papers 375, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
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  7. von Hagen, Jurgen, 1991. "A note on the empirical effectiveness of formal fiscal restraints," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 199-210, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Benoiˆt Coeure´ & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2005. "Fiscal Policy in Emu: Towards a Sustainability and Growth Pact?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 598-617, Winter.
  9. Vincent Koen & Paul van den Noord, 2005. "Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe: One-Off Measures and Creative Accounting," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 417, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi, 2005. "The Elusive Costs and the Immaterial Gains of Fiscal Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 5406, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. von Hagen, Jürgen, 2005. "Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Performance in the EU and Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 5330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lorenzo Forni & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 540, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Poterba, James M, 1994. "State Responses to Fiscal Crises: The Effects of Budgetary Institutions and Politics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 799-821, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "Good, Bad or Ugly? On the Effects of Fiscal Rules with Creative Accounting," CEPR Discussion Papers 2663, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. James E. Alt & David Dreyer Lassen, 2005. "The Political Budget Cycle is Where You Can't See It: Transparency and Fiscal Manipulation," EPRU Working Paper Series 05-03, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Fabrizio Balassone & Daniele Franco & Stefania Zotteri, 2006. "EMU fiscal indicators: a misleading compass?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 63-87, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roel M.W.J. Beetsma & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Partisan Public Investment and Debt: The Case for Fiscal Restrictions," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/37, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kerstin Bernoth & Guntram B. Wolff, 2006. "Fool the Markets? Creative Accounting, Fiscal Transparency and Sovereign Risk Premia," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Álvaro Pina & Nuno Venes, 2007. "The Political Economy of EDP Fiscal Forecasts: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers 2007/23, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
  4. Beetsma, Roel & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2007. "The Political Economy of Public Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 6090, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sandro Momigliano & Pietro Rizza, 2007. "Temporary measures in Italy: buying or losing time?," MNB Conference Volume, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 1(1), pages 61-71, December. [Downloadable!]
  6. Fabrizio Balassone & Daniele Franco & Stefania Zotteri, 2007. "The Reliability of EMU FIscal Indicators: Risks and Safeguards," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 633, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Wierts, Peter, 2009. "Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy in the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 7285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gábor P. Kiss, 2007. "One-off and off-budget items: An alternative approach," MNB Conference Volume, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 1(1), pages 18-27, December. [Downloadable!]
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