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Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Subject to Policy Changes: a Markov Switching Cointegration Approach

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Author Info
Vasco Gabriel (University of Surrey)
Pataaree Sangduan (Bureau of the Budget, Thailand)

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Abstract

We propose a Markov switching cointegration approach to assess long run fi?scal sustainability. This method allows us to simultaneously: 1) test for cointegration in the presence of signifi?cant ?fiscal policy changes; 2) assess the type of fi?scal regime (whether strongly/weakly sustainable or unsustainable) that a country experienced at a given period and 3) analyse the timing of the transition between the estimated regime types. Given its flexibility, our approach enables us to uncover a richer and more complex dynamics in the analysis of fi?scal sustainability, which standard linear cointegration methods fail to capture.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Surrey in its series Department of Economics Discussion Papers with number 0309.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0309

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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  1. Alexandre, Fernando & Bacao, Pedro & Gabriel, Vasco J., 2007. "Volatility in asset prices and long-run wealth effect estimates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1048-1064, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Gabriel, Vasco J. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2002. "A simple method of testing for cointegration subject to multiple regime changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 213-221, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. James MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  6. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and dividends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 69-88. [Downloadable!]
  7. Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
  8. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-66, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Hüseyin Kalyoncu, 2005. "Fiscal policy sustainability: test of intertemporal borrowing constraints," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(15), pages 957-962, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Davies, Andrew, 2006. "Testing for international equity market integration using regime switching cointegration techniques," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 305-321. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. James Payne & Hassan Mohammadi & Murat Cak, 2008. "Turkish budget deficit sustainability and the revenue-expenditure nexus," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 823-830. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Payne, James E, 1997. "International Evidence on the Sustainability of Budget Deficits," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(12), pages 775-79, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  15. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Cointegration and Changes in Regime: The Japanese Consumption Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 151-68, March-Apr. [Downloadable!]
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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