This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Are Interest Rates Responsible for Unemployment in the Eighties ? A Bayesian Analysis of Cointegrated Relationship with a Regime Shift

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
de la Croix, David (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) ; Belgian National Fund for Scientific Research (FNRS))
Lubrano, Michel (GREQE-CNRS, Marseille)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

To what extent can the persistence of very high unemployment rates in most of the European countries be attributed to the presence of high real interest rates ? This question, essentially addressed by the Ôcustomer marketÕ price)setting school, was very much debated in Europe these last years. It is empirically analysed for four European economies (Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany) and the USA in our paper. We use a bivariate cointegrating Var model with one endogenous breaking point between unemployment and real interest rate. Within this model and devising a new Bayesian approach, the weak and strong exogeneity of the interest rate is tested. For the four European countries the model is shown to be cointegrating providing a break point is allowed . The four posterior densities of the breaking point are very similar, when the classical estimates give more divergent and counter-intuitive information. For the four countries, the real interest rate is weakly exogenous, providing support to the hypothesis of long run causation of interest rates on unemployment after 1974. Short term causation is verified for only three countries.

Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) with number 1994015.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 28
Date of creation: 01 Jun 1994
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:1994015

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Place Montesquieu 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)
Fax: +32 10473945
Email:
Web page: http://www.uclouvain.be/econ
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Anne DAVISTER).

Related research
Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gael Martin, 2001. "Bayesian Analysis Of A Fractional Cointegration Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 217-234. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Croix,David,de la & Palm,Franz & Urbain,Jean-Pierre, 1996. "Labor market dynamics when effort depends on wage growth comparisons," Research Memoranda 016, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can include your works in the database easily by uploading them on the Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA) if you do not have access to an institutional RePEc archive.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-27.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.