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What are we learning about the long-run?

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  • Granger, C.W.J. (Clive William John)

Abstract

An attempt is made to link together earlier definitions of the long-run found in micro and macro economics with recent developments in econometrics; specifically cointegration. It is suggested that the links are not strong and that most of the previous work in econometric theory has been unnecessarily over-precise. Unit root processes can be replaced by processes that approximate them without loss of interpretation. The possibility of embedding cointegration theory into a very general non linear theory is suggested. An example uses a nonIinear relationship between UK short and long run interest rate proposed by Frank Paish.

Suggested Citation

  • Granger, C.W.J. (Clive William John), 1992. "What are we learning about the long-run?," UC3M Working papers. Economics 2886, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:2886
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Koop, Gary, 1991. "Intertemporal Properties of Real Output: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 253-265, July.
    2. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages 145-159, Supplemen.
    3. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, Decembrie.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dennis Fok & André Stel & Andrew Burke & Roy Thurik, 2019. "How entry crowds and grows markets: the gradual disaster management view of market dynamics in the retail industry," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 283(1), pages 1111-1138, December.
    2. Fouquet, Roger, 1995. "The impact of VAT introduction on UK residential energy demand : An investigation using the cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 237-247, July.
    3. Martin, Will & Mitra, Devashish, 1999. "Productivity growth and convergence in agriculture and manufacturing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2171, The World Bank.
    4. Carlo Bernini Carri, 2005. "Productivity Growth and Convergence between Agriculture and Industry in EU Countries," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 4, November.
    5. Charles Perrings & David Stern, 2000. "Modelling Loss of Resilience in Agroecosystems: Rangelands in Botswana," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 16(2), pages 185-210, June.
    6. Martínez, J. Manuel & Espasa, Antoni, 1998. "La demanda de importaciones españolas. Un enfoque VECM desagregado," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3662, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    7. Cushman, David O. & MacDonald, Ronald & Samborsky, Mark, 2001. "The law of one price for transitional Ukraine," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-256, November.
    8. Fok, D. & Horváth, C. & Paap, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2004. "A hierarchical Bayes error correction model to explain dynamic effects," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-27, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. Martínez, José Manuel & Espasa, Antoni, 1997. "Caracterización de la tendencia y componente cíclico del PIB español a través de modelos no lineales," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3646, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    10. den Haan, Wouter J., 1995. "The term structure of interest rates in real and monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 909-940.
    11. Granger, Clive W. J. & Swanson, Norman R., 1997. "An introduction to stochastic unit-root processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 35-62, September.
    12. Gonzalo, Jesus & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1998. "Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-154, June.
    13. Müller, Ulrich K. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Low-frequency robust cointegration testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 66-81.
    14. Karim Maher Abadir, 2004. "Cointegration Theory, Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Economics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(1), pages 60-71, January.
    15. Geoff Harcourt, 2011. "On the Concept of Period and Run in Economic Theory," Discussion Papers 2011-11, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    16. Martínez, J. Manuel & Espasa, Antoni, 1998. "Caracterización del PIB español a partir de modelos univariantes no lineales," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3660, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    17. Fouquet, Roger & Pearson, Peter & Hawdon, David & Robinson, Colin & Stevens, Paul, 1997. "The future of UK final user energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 231-240, February.

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    The long-run in microeconomics;

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