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Testing and Estimating Persistence in Canadian Unemployment

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  • Ossama Mikhail
  • Curtis J. Eberwein
  • Jagdish Handa

Abstract

A vital implication of unemployment persistence applies to the Bank of Canada's disinflation policies since it adversely influences unemployment and considerably lengthens recessions. This paper tests for persistence in Canadian sectoral unemployment, using the modified rescaled-range test. Our results show evidence of persistence in sectoral unemployment that translates to persistence in aggregate unemployment. To quantify this aggregate-level persistence, we estimate it within the framework of Bayesian ARFIMA class of models. The results conclude that Canadian unemployment exhibits persistence in the short and intermediate run.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0311004.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0311004

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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: ARFIMA; Fractional Integrated; Bayesian; Unemployment Persistence; Canada; Rescaled-Range Statistic;

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Cited by:
  1. Oreopoulos, Philip & Wachter, Till von & Heisz, Andrew, 2008. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession: Hysteresis and Heterogeneity in the Market for College Graduates," IZA Discussion Papers 3578, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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